***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2020.-22.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 1.4 2.7 8.8 62.5 40.4 36.5 1.0 3.4 5.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 1.4 1.7 7.6 63.0 40.0 36.5 1.4 3.6 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 2.7 2.8 8.2 58.4 38.4 35.0 2.2 5.6 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 4.6 6.6 9.1 58.4 40.3 35.4 4.7 7.9 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 4.0 4.7 9.0 57.9 36.9 34.7 3.8 9.4 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 3.2 6.0 10.6 71.6 44.0 39.6 2.3 7.8 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 1.6 2.9 7.9 66.2 42.1 37.5 1.4 4.3 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 9.5 12.0 10.5 64.6 40.1 36.9 8.7 15.1 24.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 3.5 4.7 9.2 57.4 36.4 34.3 4.2 6.6 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 5.8 8.1 10.3 61.3 37.6 35.8 6.4 11.9 19.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 5.9 4.3 8.9 59.8 40.1 36.1 3.5 12.2 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.2 5.8 9.7 67.6 43.1 38.2 5.0 7.5 15.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 3.3 7.5 10.8 72.6 45.0 39.4 4.2 8.2 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 5.3 6.5 10.1 58.2 36.4 33.7 6.0 10.1 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 1.7 2.9 8.0 54.1 42.3 34.8 0.8 4.3 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 3.3 6.0 9.6 66.0 43.7 37.8 4.3 6.4 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 2.3 3.4 7.6 65.2 43.0 37.8 2.3 6.0 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.0 6.0 11.2 63.3 38.6 36.3 4.1 8.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 1.9 1.6 7.7 60.8 38.8 35.6 0.9 4.8 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 4.5 4.8 13.2 65.0 39.8 36.6 4.3 7.1 12.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 3.4 4.7 9.0 59.2 38.1 35.3 4.3 7.8 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 2.4 3.1 7.8 62.5 40.9 36.4 1.7 5.5 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 1.3 2.4 8.2 59.5 38.0 35.2 2.0 3.0 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 6.2 6.1 9.8 59.7 37.8 35.3 5.7 10.9 20.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.9 2.6 9.6 60.6 38.7 35.3 1.8 6.1 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 2.8 5.2 10.4 72.0 45.6 39.0 2.5 6.6 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 2.1 4.2 9.5 64.2 41.0 36.4 2.7 4.7 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 2.5 4.5 8.8 58.8 42.2 35.9 2.1 6.3 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 8.6 9.4 11.9 64.4 38.7 36.6 7.5 15.3 27.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 1.3 2.6 7.9 62.4 39.8 36.3 1.5 3.3 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------