***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2020.-15.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 1.3 3.5 10.0 83.0 53.3 43.6 1.1 3.0 4.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 0.8 1.4 8.3 76.0 47.9 41.1 0.9 2.0 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 1.9 4.5 10.3 85.6 54.6 44.2 1.8 4.4 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 3.5 7.2 12.3 87.5 56.1 43.2 4.0 6.4 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 2.0 5.8 12.7 92.8 58.6 44.8 1.8 4.3 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.1 6.3 14.8 108.3 63.6 49.4 2.0 4.3 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 0.9 2.4 8.3 77.7 48.2 41.2 1.1 2.5 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 7.8 16.3 15.6 109.5 63.6 49.1 7.5 13.0 16.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.1 5.7 13.7 96.9 59.0 46.1 2.5 4.4 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.3 8.3 15.5 105.5 62.8 47.9 2.3 7.3 8.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 2.4 7.8 13.4 101.9 61.1 46.9 1.8 5.9 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 2.0 6.2 14.0 108.5 62.9 48.9 2.9 4.8 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.1 6.7 14.7 107.1 60.8 49.4 3.3 4.6 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 3.1 8.6 14.8 97.7 58.2 48.3 2.0 7.4 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 1.0 3.5 11.2 82.7 57.0 40.8 0.9 2.5 6.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.4 9.0 13.8 103.6 60.6 47.6 2.6 5.6 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 0.8 2.3 7.9 74.3 46.3 39.5 0.9 2.7 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 7.2 10.3 16.6 108.6 65.8 50.2 3.4 5.4 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 1.9 4.5 8.9 78.8 49.0 42.4 1.0 4.7 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 2.2 8.2 19.6 111.7 65.8 51.7 3.0 4.4 8.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 1.5 4.0 11.9 91.5 56.6 45.5 1.2 3.3 5.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 1.0 2.3 8.3 73.2 45.4 39.8 0.8 2.7 3.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 1.0 2.8 10.4 86.8 52.5 45.1 0.5 2.5 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.1 7.6 14.4 101.0 61.1 48.4 1.7 6.7 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 1.5 4.1 11.8 86.4 52.7 43.8 0.6 3.6 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 1.4 5.1 13.3 100.3 60.1 47.7 1.3 2.8 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 2.1 5.1 10.9 86.2 52.7 43.9 1.1 4.9 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.0 5.8 12.7 92.4 60.1 43.8 2.1 3.7 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.5 17.7 111.5 65.9 52.0 4.9 8.4 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 0.9 2.2 8.6 77.3 49.0 41.9 0.6 2.3 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------