***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2020.-08.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 6.9 8.6 14.0 119.3 67.6 57.0 2.9 5.6 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.3 7.8 11.9 107.6 63.2 52.7 2.1 5.7 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.2 14.7 14.4 119.0 68.2 56.3 2.0 7.8 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 9.1 13.2 15.5 112.8 64.8 55.2 4.1 6.9 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 8.3 13.4 17.1 124.2 67.9 57.5 2.6 6.3 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 11.6 14.0 18.8 146.8 74.3 67.6 2.7 4.2 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 6.1 6.8 12.1 112.8 64.4 54.3 1.7 3.8 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 17.4 28.5 20.9 142.9 75.5 63.0 8.6 13.8 21.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 10.7 13.6 18.5 137.4 73.1 62.4 1.5 4.2 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 11.5 12.4 20.5 143.8 75.9 63.4 2.3 8.8 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 6.6 13.6 18.2 132.5 71.8 59.8 1.8 4.6 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 5.5 11.8 18.7 138.5 72.0 62.4 2.3 3.8 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 8.0 11.0 18.4 134.2 68.0 62.1 2.5 6.7 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.0 21.0 19.4 126.9 71.5 59.6 4.5 12.1 18.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 6.5 10.5 13.7 113.6 63.4 55.6 1.6 5.0 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 7.4 9.0 16.6 125.0 66.7 59.0 4.2 6.1 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.4 6.6 10.8 100.1 60.2 51.0 0.9 3.4 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 12.9 17.3 21.9 148.2 76.8 66.2 2.0 6.3 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.2 12.4 12.5 108.0 63.7 52.5 2.1 6.4 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 8.4 10.2 25.5 141.2 76.6 63.7 2.7 7.9 10.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 7.2 15.8 16.6 128.9 70.3 59.4 1.9 3.5 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.1 7.0 11.4 96.2 57.9 49.6 1.4 6.4 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.5 12.6 14.0 112.2 67.4 53.3 2.7 7.7 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 18.1 22.9 19.4 135.6 73.7 62.8 2.6 8.9 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.8 9.2 15.7 113.1 63.7 54.7 0.7 5.7 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 5.9 13.4 18.4 129.6 70.5 60.7 1.3 4.1 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 6.4 7.9 14.6 115.8 66.7 56.5 1.4 4.5 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 5.0 7.0 14.5 113.2 64.7 55.8 1.8 3.3 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 20.1 26.1 23.8 151.6 78.6 67.1 4.6 12.0 16.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 7.5 8.6 12.6 112.2 65.5 53.9 2.4 4.7 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------