***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2020.-01.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 8.6 5.4 10.2 78.7 48.5 45.9 1.6 6.1 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.3 9.1 10.9 100.6 58.1 51.6 3.0 5.0 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 8.9 5.3 10.4 82.4 49.2 46.5 3.8 5.3 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.5 3.4 7.8 49.7 37.5 34.3 2.8 7.4 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 10.0 4.9 9.5 66.1 41.8 39.2 4.3 6.0 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 3.1 6.2 9.1 66.4 44.3 38.8 3.7 6.5 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 7.5 8.7 10.7 99.5 58.1 52.3 2.1 5.3 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.1 9.4 11.1 68.1 41.9 39.5 7.9 11.4 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.7 4.9 9.4 67.4 42.6 39.7 3.3 6.3 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.0 6.7 11.1 70.4 43.3 40.1 4.7 7.5 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.6 4.7 9.5 66.2 42.6 38.9 2.8 5.5 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.8 5.3 9.6 65.7 40.9 38.4 4.4 7.2 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.1 5.5 10.6 68.9 42.5 39.7 3.9 7.3 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.1 12.0 15.1 96.8 56.5 50.7 5.2 10.0 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.4 0.7 5.1 34.0 38.1 31.9 0.2 5.9 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 9.1 5.4 9.6 64.6 41.9 38.7 4.1 6.7 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 8.7 9.5 11.6 110.6 60.6 55.0 5.3 7.1 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 9.6 6.5 12.8 79.2 46.1 43.8 4.2 6.8 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.6 7.2 11.2 98.3 56.6 51.3 3.1 5.1 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 10.0 7.8 14.8 76.4 45.0 43.8 4.6 8.6 11.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.5 5.2 9.8 72.4 47.0 42.1 3.4 5.6 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 10.2 10.4 12.6 111.6 60.4 56.0 4.0 9.1 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 7.1 5.5 11.8 95.5 54.9 51.1 2.9 5.3 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 11.2 7.4 12.3 84.4 49.5 46.2 5.4 7.6 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 9.1 3.6 10.7 72.6 46.1 42.6 1.8 4.7 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.9 7.2 10.6 72.8 46.4 40.6 3.1 7.7 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 8.2 4.8 10.9 80.6 48.6 46.2 1.7 5.3 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.9 2.8 6.6 43.9 38.0 33.4 1.9 6.1 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.8 10.7 14.0 82.1 47.9 45.4 6.3 11.8 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 8.8 7.0 10.6 93.1 55.4 50.0 4.1 6.4 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------