***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2020.-22.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 46 54 100 12.4 12.6 11.5 1.7 73.2 68.9 9.4 10.9 12.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 12.2 12.6 11.4 1.6 73.8 68.8 8.3 10.9 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 44 56 100 12.4 12.7 11.8 1.6 71.8 67.6 8.9 11.0 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 5.3 6.2 9.0 1.9 74.6 70.0 1.7 3.3 4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 11.6 12.5 9.8 1.4 66.8 64.3 9.2 11.3 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 10.5 10.9 7.7 0.9 60.2 58.6 8.4 10.1 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 45 55 100 11.8 12.1 11.3 1.5 72.5 68.3 7.7 10.6 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 1.1 1.0 8.0 0.8 58.6 57.6 -0.9 0.7 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 11.8 12.8 10.5 1.3 66.2 63.5 9.3 11.4 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 11.8 12.6 9.0 1.0 60.6 59.1 9.3 11.3 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 11.9 12.4 9.9 1.2 63.6 61.5 9.7 11.6 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 11.0 11.5 8.9 0.9 59.0 58.4 8.7 10.6 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 12.0 12.1 8.6 0.7 56.3 56.5 9.5 11.6 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 13.2 13.2 10.7 1.4 68.0 64.7 9.9 11.6 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 12.5 13.2 10.7 2.3 78.4 73.6 8.9 10.7 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 12.1 12.6 9.1 1.0 61.5 60.0 10.1 11.6 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 46 54 100 11.6 12.1 11.1 1.5 72.6 69.0 7.6 10.4 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 11.6 12.4 8.6 1.1 62.7 60.5 9.2 11.1 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 12.3 12.6 11.6 1.6 73.1 68.6 8.1 10.9 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 6.5 6.7 5.9 0.8 62.9 58.8 4.3 5.9 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 11.7 12.7 11.3 1.4 67.6 65.2 9.5 11.4 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 45 55 100 12.3 12.8 11.3 1.6 72.4 68.8 8.8 11.0 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 12.7 13.1 11.8 1.6 71.1 67.8 8.9 11.3 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 11.8 12.6 10.5 1.3 66.3 63.6 9.5 11.3 12.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 12.0 12.4 10.1 1.7 72.6 68.3 8.8 10.7 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 11.3 11.3 7.8 0.6 56.6 56.4 9.2 10.8 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 46 54 100 12.1 12.2 10.8 1.6 71.9 67.9 8.8 10.8 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 12.8 13.6 9.6 1.9 73.8 69.4 9.6 10.8 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 6.5 7.3 7.7 1.0 63.0 60.2 4.8 5.9 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 11.9 12.1 11.5 1.6 73.9 68.8 8.2 10.7 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------