***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2020.-22.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 13.3 13.1 12.3 0.6 55.4 54.7 9.1 12.3 14.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 12.9 13.3 12.3 0.8 58.1 56.1 9.6 11.9 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.4 13.6 12.7 0.6 53.3 54.0 9.1 13.4 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.2 10.1 0.6 52.9 53.4 0.5 5.9 7.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 14.2 13.0 10.7 0.2 48.9 50.7 8.9 13.1 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 9.2 11.8 8.2 -0.3 43.7 46.8 7.2 12.5 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 12.8 13.2 12.2 0.7 58.8 56.2 9.8 11.9 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -2.0 0.2 9.0 0.0 46.8 49.3 -1.7 0.5 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 14.1 12.9 11.1 0.2 49.0 50.6 8.4 13.1 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 14.0 12.3 9.9 0.1 47.1 49.8 7.9 12.8 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 9.9 12.1 10.4 0.0 45.7 49.3 8.6 13.0 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 9.0 11.5 9.9 -0.1 44.7 48.4 7.2 12.3 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 10.1 12.4 8.9 -0.3 43.0 47.0 8.6 13.1 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.4 13.3 11.3 0.4 49.0 52.7 9.7 13.4 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 14.2 14.0 11.0 0.9 55.9 55.6 9.0 13.4 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 10.6 13.4 9.8 -0.1 44.7 48.6 8.9 14.0 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.9 12.4 12.1 0.8 59.5 56.6 9.1 10.9 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.6 12.1 9.6 0.2 48.3 50.9 8.1 12.5 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 13.4 13.4 12.5 0.7 56.3 55.6 9.6 12.3 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.2 7.4 6.8 0.1 51.9 50.9 3.8 7.0 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 14.2 13.3 11.9 0.4 51.1 51.9 8.8 13.2 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.9 13.5 12.3 0.8 58.4 56.6 9.9 11.8 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.0 13.1 12.7 0.6 52.6 54.4 9.6 12.9 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.1 13.1 11.2 0.3 49.8 52.1 9.5 13.1 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.3 10.8 0.6 56.0 54.1 9.2 13.0 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 9.2 11.5 8.7 -0.2 44.0 47.6 7.9 12.0 15.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.1 11.6 0.6 56.4 54.6 9.3 12.9 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 15.1 14.6 10.3 0.6 51.6 53.0 8.5 14.5 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.1 8.7 0.2 49.3 51.2 3.0 7.1 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 13.2 13.1 12.3 0.7 56.8 55.7 9.4 12.1 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------