***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2020.-15.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 11.3 10.6 10.5 0.2 50.8 51.3 8.7 10.5 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 11.9 11.2 10.5 0.4 52.7 52.9 8.9 11.1 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 11.8 10.7 10.8 0.1 47.9 50.2 9.6 11.1 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 4.4 3.6 8.1 0.3 51.3 51.9 1.0 3.5 4.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.3 10.5 8.6 -0.3 44.9 47.2 9.0 11.3 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 7.2 8.5 6.1 -1.0 40.0 42.3 7.8 9.2 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 11.3 10.9 10.5 0.4 53.6 53.0 9.1 10.3 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -0.8 0.6 6.8 -1.0 41.7 42.2 -1.4 1.0 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.1 10.3 9.1 -0.4 44.3 46.7 9.5 11.0 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.9 9.8 7.7 -0.8 42.4 43.9 9.0 10.7 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 12.2 9.9 8.2 -0.7 42.2 44.4 9.0 11.2 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 8.6 9.4 7.7 -1.0 41.4 42.1 8.9 10.3 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 9.2 10.2 6.8 -1.1 38.6 40.9 9.7 11.3 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.7 11.1 9.2 -0.3 47.7 47.5 9.6 11.9 13.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 12.0 11.5 9.2 0.6 56.6 54.4 8.4 11.2 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.2 10.1 7.6 -0.8 41.1 43.6 9.9 11.2 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 11.2 11.1 10.5 0.4 56.3 53.9 7.9 10.4 13.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 11.8 9.7 7.4 -0.7 43.9 44.4 9.0 10.7 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 11.8 11.4 10.7 0.3 52.2 52.0 9.0 11.0 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.9 4.9 4.6 -0.9 41.5 42.1 4.6 7.3 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 12.1 10.9 10.0 -0.1 46.1 48.6 9.5 11.1 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 12.4 12.4 10.5 0.4 56.1 53.3 9.2 11.6 14.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 12.4 11.9 10.8 0.1 51.1 50.5 9.5 11.6 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.2 10.9 9.1 -0.4 46.2 46.9 10.2 11.3 13.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 11.6 10.6 8.9 0.2 49.6 51.4 8.3 10.7 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 9.0 10.0 6.8 -0.9 39.2 42.3 9.7 10.8 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 11.2 10.4 9.8 0.2 50.4 51.3 9.4 10.4 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 12.2 11.3 8.3 0.2 51.5 51.0 8.3 11.3 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 4.5 4.8 6.4 -0.8 42.8 43.4 4.1 6.8 8.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 11.3 10.6 10.5 0.3 51.2 52.2 9.0 10.5 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------