***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2020.-08.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 11.6 12.0 10.1 0.9 56.6 54.1 7.4 11.3 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 11.0 11.4 10.2 0.8 56.3 53.6 7.6 10.5 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 11.9 12.3 10.3 0.6 54.6 51.8 8.6 11.5 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 3.6 4.2 7.6 1.2 58.3 57.4 0.1 3.2 5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 11.8 11.6 8.3 0.5 52.3 51.5 8.5 11.4 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 10.6 9.9 6.4 0.1 48.9 48.7 7.4 10.1 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 10.9 11.0 10.0 0.7 56.0 53.7 7.2 10.5 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 1.2 0.4 6.4 -0.2 47.4 47.3 -0.6 0.6 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 12.4 12.3 9.1 0.4 51.5 50.5 9.1 12.1 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 12.3 11.9 7.3 -0.1 48.4 47.6 8.9 11.9 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 12.2 11.8 8.4 0.2 50.2 49.4 8.6 11.7 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 11.3 10.6 7.4 0.0 48.6 48.2 8.3 10.8 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 12.0 10.9 7.4 -0.2 47.0 46.7 8.9 11.4 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 12.8 12.3 9.0 0.1 49.7 49.2 9.4 12.3 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 10.8 12.1 9.8 1.8 63.3 61.6 5.8 10.3 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 12.2 11.6 7.8 0.1 50.4 49.1 9.5 11.6 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 10.1 10.8 9.8 0.8 56.6 54.1 7.0 9.6 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 11.8 11.2 6.7 -0.2 48.0 47.0 9.0 11.3 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 11.7 11.5 10.3 0.7 55.9 52.9 7.7 11.3 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.5 5.7 4.3 -0.4 46.6 45.3 4.8 5.9 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 12.2 11.9 9.9 0.5 51.9 51.1 9.0 11.9 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 11.4 11.5 10.0 0.7 55.5 53.1 7.1 10.8 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 12.3 12.0 10.3 0.6 53.9 51.5 9.1 11.8 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 12.7 12.3 8.8 0.1 50.5 48.7 9.1 12.3 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 10.8 10.7 8.8 0.9 56.0 54.3 7.4 10.3 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 11.5 10.5 6.5 -0.1 46.1 47.0 9.4 10.9 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 11.3 11.8 9.5 0.8 56.4 53.6 7.7 10.8 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 10.8 12.0 8.4 1.3 59.3 57.5 6.2 10.2 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 6.7 5.9 5.8 -0.4 47.1 45.8 4.3 6.0 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 11.2 11.3 10.2 0.8 55.8 53.6 7.7 10.7 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------