***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2020.-01.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 14.6 15.4 12.9 5.0 89.5 88.1 6.0 8.8 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 3 97 100 13.1 14.2 12.7 4.5 88.6 86.4 4.4 7.3 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 14.9 16.1 13.5 5.2 88.8 87.4 6.2 7.7 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 8.6 10.1 10.4 5.7 91.1 89.4 -0.1 1.6 4.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 14.1 17.0 11.7 5.1 88.9 86.8 6.3 8.7 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 12.5 15.2 10.1 4.9 87.6 85.6 5.9 7.6 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 3 97 100 12.9 13.9 12.3 4.3 88.0 85.4 4.4 7.6 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 11 89 100 2.7 3.8 9.8 4.4 86.0 82.9 -2.1 0.6 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 14.7 16.5 12.9 5.1 88.6 86.4 7.0 9.2 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 14.5 16.3 10.9 4.7 85.6 82.8 6.6 9.6 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 8 92 100 14.9 17.0 12.4 5.2 89.3 86.6 6.3 9.5 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 9 91 100 13.5 15.3 10.8 4.6 88.3 84.8 6.7 8.3 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 13.7 15.8 11.3 4.4 85.3 82.3 7.1 9.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 3 97 100 15.2 16.4 13.1 5.4 88.4 86.2 6.2 8.5 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 3 97 100 13.8 16.0 12.8 5.9 93.1 90.5 4.5 7.6 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 14.7 16.9 11.4 4.9 87.9 85.2 7.5 9.9 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 6 94 100 12.0 13.4 11.9 4.2 87.4 84.8 4.2 6.8 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 14.7 15.9 10.6 5.1 87.5 84.9 7.1 9.0 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 1 99 100 13.8 14.8 13.0 4.7 88.7 86.9 4.6 6.6 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 8.6 10.1 8.1 4.5 86.3 83.7 2.4 4.6 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 14.7 16.4 13.4 5.0 88.0 86.3 6.8 8.8 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 13.5 14.5 12.4 4.4 87.9 85.2 4.6 7.4 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 14.7 15.1 13.4 5.0 89.1 87.4 5.3 7.5 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 6 94 100 14.6 16.2 12.9 5.3 88.6 86.2 6.6 9.8 13.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 14.0 15.1 12.0 5.1 88.8 87.5 5.7 7.5 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 12.1 14.5 9.2 3.7 84.1 81.5 6.7 9.6 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 13.8 15.5 12.2 4.7 88.7 86.8 6.3 7.6 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 15.1 18.5 11.6 5.8 91.6 89.3 5.8 8.1 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 8 92 100 9.6 10.9 9.9 5.0 86.8 85.0 2.9 5.3 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 13.7 14.4 12.8 4.7 89.2 87.1 4.4 7.3 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------