***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2020.-22.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 2.4 1.8 2.6 1.5 70.4 68.3 -0.5 1.4 1.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 1.6 2.2 2.7 1.7 76.4 72.5 -0.7 0.3 1.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 4.1 3.9 2.9 1.7 73.5 71.1 1.5 2.9 3.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 -2.3 -1.9 0.2 1.7 70.4 69.8 -4.7 -3.7 -2.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.3 64.8 65.1 -1.0 -0.2 0.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 -0.5 -0.4 -2.0 0.9 61.1 61.0 -1.8 -0.8 -0.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 1.6 2.1 2.7 1.7 74.3 71.9 -0.4 0.5 1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -6.0 -5.9 -1.9 1.0 58.9 60.4 -7.4 -6.6 -5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 1.0 1.8 0.6 1.2 64.1 64.3 -0.1 0.7 2.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 1.1 1.3 -1.1 1.1 60.6 61.9 -0.3 0.8 1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 0.9 1.1 -0.2 1.1 62.1 62.2 -0.4 0.6 1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 -0.4 0.1 -0.9 1.0 60.1 61.0 -1.6 -0.7 0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 0.6 0.5 -1.4 0.7 55.0 57.6 -0.7 0.3 1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 2.2 2.6 0.7 1.5 70.8 68.5 0.2 1.1 2.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.8 75.8 73.1 0.0 1.1 1.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 1.3 1.5 -0.8 1.0 60.6 61.1 0.1 1.0 2.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 2.1 2.7 2.7 1.8 78.4 73.8 -0.2 1.0 1.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 -1.1 -0.2 -1.5 1.3 64.3 64.1 -2.1 -1.4 -0.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 1.7 2.3 2.7 1.6 76.0 72.2 -0.6 0.6 1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 -3.4 -3.5 -3.4 0.7 58.1 57.4 -4.9 -3.9 -3.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 1.6 1.4 2.0 1.4 68.5 67.3 -0.4 0.6 1.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 1.4 2.0 2.6 1.8 79.5 74.4 -0.5 0.3 1.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 1.4 1.8 2.4 1.5 74.1 70.9 -0.7 0.3 0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 1.5 1.6 0.6 1.5 70.4 68.9 -0.5 0.5 1.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 1.3 1.2 1.6 1.4 67.7 66.8 -0.7 0.4 1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 0.5 0.4 -1.5 0.7 56.4 58.8 -0.2 0.2 1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 1.7 2.1 2.2 1.4 68.7 67.3 -0.2 0.8 1.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.7 72.3 70.6 -1.7 -0.5 0.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 -1.8 -1.7 -2.3 1.0 62.6 61.8 -3.6 -2.3 -1.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 1.9 2.4 2.8 1.7 74.8 71.7 -0.2 0.7 2.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------