***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2020.-15.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 1.3 0.7 1.6 -0.1 48.0 48.7 -0.1 0.8 1.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 1.2 0.6 1.7 0.2 49.6 50.9 -0.2 0.6 2.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 3.2 2.4 1.9 0.2 49.0 50.9 1.0 2.5 4.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 -3.1 -3.7 -0.8 0.3 49.7 50.9 -5.2 -3.6 -1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 0.3 -0.8 -0.8 -0.1 41.8 47.1 -1.3 -0.1 0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 -0.5 -1.3 -3.1 -0.4 38.1 46.0 -1.7 -0.9 0.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 1.0 0.5 1.7 0.2 49.4 50.9 -0.2 0.5 1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -5.7 -7.2 -3.0 -0.4 39.4 44.6 -7.6 -6.5 -3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 1.3 0.4 -0.4 -0.1 43.1 47.2 0.0 0.7 1.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 1.5 -0.1 -2.2 -0.3 41.0 45.7 -0.3 1.1 2.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 1.2 -0.2 -1.4 -0.2 41.1 46.5 -0.4 0.8 1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 -0.3 -1.0 -2.1 -0.3 39.7 45.7 -1.4 -0.8 0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 -1.5 -0.1 -2.7 -0.6 37.5 44.9 -0.4 0.5 1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 1.9 0.7 -0.5 -0.1 44.4 47.6 0.0 1.5 2.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.6 55.1 54.4 -0.2 1.0 1.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 1.5 0.3 -2.0 -0.3 39.9 46.4 0.1 1.1 2.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 1.2 0.7 1.7 0.2 51.1 51.8 -0.1 0.6 2.3 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 -2.3 -1.2 -2.8 -0.3 40.9 45.9 -1.8 -0.4 0.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 1.3 0.8 1.6 0.2 49.5 50.8 -0.3 0.8 1.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -5.5 -4.3 -5.0 -1.0 35.2 40.8 -4.5 -3.1 -1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 0.8 0.2 0.9 0.0 46.3 48.6 -0.2 0.3 0.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 0.9 0.5 1.5 0.3 51.1 52.0 -0.1 0.4 1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 1.1 0.6 1.5 0.1 48.5 50.3 -0.4 0.6 1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 1.1 0.3 -0.6 0.1 45.8 49.2 -0.1 0.7 1.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 1.1 0.6 0.3 -0.1 47.6 48.6 -0.5 0.6 1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 -1.5 -0.5 -2.6 -0.6 40.1 44.5 -0.6 0.4 1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 1.3 0.8 1.0 -0.2 48.0 48.2 -0.1 0.9 1.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 -0.4 -0.7 -0.6 0.3 49.1 51.4 -1.1 -0.7 0.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 -4.2 -3.2 -3.5 -0.6 38.5 43.9 -3.8 -2.5 -0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 1.2 0.7 1.7 0.2 49.1 50.8 0.0 0.7 1.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------