***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2020.-08.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 0.8 2.3 2.3 1.5 62.8 62.0 -0.5 0.3 2.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 0.7 1.4 2.2 1.5 63.2 62.3 -1.1 0.4 1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 3.0 3.7 2.5 1.6 61.6 62.8 1.1 2.8 4.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 -3.6 -1.6 0.1 1.9 64.2 65.2 -5.5 -4.1 -1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.6 61.8 62.0 -1.9 -0.3 0.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 -0.5 -0.1 -1.7 1.6 61.7 61.9 -2.9 -0.9 0.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 1.0 1.5 2.2 1.5 62.0 62.2 -0.8 0.7 1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 -5.6 -5.3 -2.0 1.2 58.1 57.9 -7.8 -6.1 -3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 1.4 2.2 0.7 1.7 64.7 64.3 -0.5 1.1 2.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 1.0 0.9 -1.2 1.3 60.4 59.9 -0.5 0.5 1.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 0.8 1.0 0.0 1.6 63.4 62.4 -1.1 0.4 1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 -0.6 -0.1 -1.0 1.3 60.5 59.0 -2.4 -0.8 0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 0.2 0.7 -1.1 1.2 59.5 58.6 -1.1 -0.3 0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 1.5 2.4 0.4 1.6 63.4 62.2 0.1 1.1 3.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 2.3 3.0 1.8 2.5 73.3 72.3 -0.7 0.4 2.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 1.3 1.2 -0.6 1.5 61.6 61.0 -0.5 0.8 1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 1.4 1.7 2.1 1.6 62.1 62.7 -0.4 1.1 2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 -1.1 -0.8 -1.7 1.3 58.4 59.2 -2.9 -1.5 -0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 1.2 1.5 2.1 1.5 63.2 62.6 -0.8 0.8 1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -3.2 -3.9 -3.7 0.4 48.7 51.0 -7.2 -3.8 -1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 0.7 0.9 1.9 1.6 63.9 63.0 -0.9 0.3 1.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 1.2 1.9 2.0 1.5 63.0 63.2 -1.0 1.0 2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 0.6 1.1 2.0 1.5 63.3 63.1 -1.0 0.2 1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 0.4 0.9 0.4 1.6 63.0 62.8 -0.9 0.0 1.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.5 61.3 61.5 -0.4 0.4 1.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 0.5 0.8 -1.5 1.1 56.8 57.3 -1.6 0.2 1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 1.0 1.3 1.9 1.5 61.4 60.9 -0.5 0.6 1.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 0.5 1.5 0.7 2.2 67.9 67.7 -2.2 -1.4 1.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 -1.4 -1.1 -2.6 0.9 55.9 56.2 -3.4 -1.8 -0.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 1.2 1.9 2.3 1.5 63.0 62.5 -0.5 0.8 2.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------