***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2020.-01.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 2.9 3.8 4.0 4.5 87.8 86.1 -1.8 0.5 1.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 5 95 100 1.8 4.1 4.2 4.7 93.6 90.7 -2.5 -0.7 0.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 4.5 6.4 4.3 4.6 92.6 88.6 -0.4 1.1 2.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 -0.8 1.0 1.3 4.3 89.9 85.6 -5.7 -5.1 -2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 0.5 1.1 1.9 3.8 81.4 78.7 -3.5 -1.0 0.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 44 56 100 -0.3 -0.5 -1.1 3.0 68.2 68.6 -4.1 -1.2 -0.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 6 94 100 2.3 4.5 4.1 4.7 92.6 89.6 -2.1 -0.4 0.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 -4.9 -3.8 -0.9 3.3 69.4 70.6 -9.3 -7.2 -4.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 1.6 2.3 1.3 3.2 77.7 75.5 -2.8 -0.3 1.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 1.3 1.8 -0.2 3.2 74.3 73.2 -2.3 -1.3 1.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 0.8 1.4 0.8 3.0 72.2 70.8 -2.7 -1.0 1.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 0.0 0.4 0.2 3.3 70.8 71.4 -3.8 -1.8 0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 91 9 100 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 2.5 61.8 63.3 -3.0 -0.6 0.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 2.6 4.0 2.0 4.4 86.8 85.1 -1.7 -0.2 1.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 11 89 100 1.5 2.5 2.5 3.9 84.7 83.6 -2.4 -0.5 0.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 1.5 2.4 0.4 3.0 69.4 69.6 -2.2 -0.3 1.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 2.3 4.0 4.2 5.0 95.3 91.6 -2.1 -0.7 1.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 -0.9 -0.5 0.1 4.1 83.5 81.5 -4.0 -2.4 -1.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 2.0 3.4 4.0 4.6 93.0 90.0 -2.4 -0.6 1.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 -2.4 -1.2 -1.2 3.7 77.9 77.5 -8.9 -6.2 -2.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 1.4 3.4 3.3 3.9 85.9 83.5 -2.4 -0.5 1.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 1.8 3.5 4.3 4.9 94.3 92.1 -2.6 -0.8 1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 9 91 100 1.0 3.1 3.4 4.2 91.5 87.5 -2.4 -0.6 0.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 1.7 2.6 2.1 4.3 87.5 85.0 -2.3 -1.3 0.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 11 89 100 0.9 1.8 3.2 4.2 85.0 83.5 -2.4 -1.4 0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 -0.3 0.5 -0.3 2.9 66.2 69.3 -2.5 -0.5 0.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 2.5 4.2 3.8 4.4 87.2 85.0 -2.4 -0.8 1.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 -0.1 1.3 1.9 4.3 87.5 84.3 -4.5 -2.7 0.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 -0.6 0.2 -0.9 3.9 79.2 78.4 -5.8 -3.6 -1.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 6 94 100 2.8 4.4 4.2 4.6 91.7 89.5 -1.9 -0.3 0.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------