***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2014.-23.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 0.0 34.8 77.6 36.3 36.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 14.8 14.8 36.1 82.4 34.8 38.9 13.9 28.1 31.7 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 19.8 26.0 37.8 82.2 38.3 38.1 22.1 32.0 55.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 29.2 44.8 50.9 99.0 53.8 48.4 26.7 40.2 53.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 24.8 39.1 47.8 93.5 50.6 44.9 30.6 39.0 51.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 22.8 27.8 51.9 91.8 47.5 44.0 22.9 33.6 47.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 14.7 17.7 34.9 81.4 36.0 38.5 15.7 28.5 35.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 51.6 74.1 51.5 94.9 52.2 46.7 54.3 71.0 78.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 23.1 33.5 46.4 90.7 49.6 42.9 23.8 33.7 45.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 29.1 39.5 51.2 93.5 50.3 44.9 29.4 39.2 52.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 25.5 30.6 44.9 92.9 48.3 45.1 24.3 31.1 43.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 26.5 37.6 44.9 94.0 50.5 45.9 30.7 37.2 44.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 27.3 37.2 46.7 89.7 44.0 42.6 27.9 39.2 47.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 30.5 41.9 48.8 86.1 38.7 40.7 38.5 48.3 69.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 42.1 51.3 53.0 108.7 59.0 53.6 16.1 33.8 63.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 25.3 33.8 46.0 92.4 46.9 44.4 27.4 34.2 40.1 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 12.6 19.6 35.7 84.9 38.4 40.9 16.9 22.0 39.1 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 26.9 34.4 55.8 93.3 47.9 44.6 29.3 35.7 43.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 17.9 23.3 37.0 82.3 35.5 38.7 19.2 33.6 40.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 25.4 36.8 64.5 93.2 48.1 45.5 27.2 37.2 46.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 20.8 22.9 40.4 85.3 44.8 40.0 18.3 31.6 50.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 15.2 21.2 38.1 85.7 38.1 40.6 18.1 24.5 36.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 17.6 26.5 39.1 82.3 38.8 38.6 18.9 30.1 39.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 29.1 41.5 48.0 88.3 43.2 41.6 36.3 44.8 65.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 17.3 24.3 44.6 85.4 43.3 40.8 17.1 27.4 49.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 38.3 36.3 49.2 96.6 53.2 47.9 24.2 35.2 43.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 15.2 18.1 39.3 79.3 37.8 37.0 16.8 25.8 46.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 33.4 28.7 51.2 102.8 54.9 50.2 17.3 24.3 52.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 47.4 62.9 59.4 93.7 48.1 45.3 47.7 63.3 69.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 17.0 14.8 35.9 81.0 34.6 37.9 13.7 35.2 41.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------