***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.03.2014.-23.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 11.3 117.4 64.6 50.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 7.5 9.8 11.3 109.0 66.4 52.1 1.4 3.6 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.2 9.3 11.9 116.3 65.8 50.3 2.2 5.6 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.6 13.3 14.8 129.4 70.1 52.6 4.7 7.9 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 13.2 16.9 13.9 127.8 71.0 52.7 3.8 9.4 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 3.5 10.2 14.4 111.6 62.8 49.4 2.3 7.8 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.0 9.8 10.9 110.5 67.7 52.4 1.4 4.3 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 9.9 25.8 14.6 124.9 68.9 53.9 8.7 15.1 24.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.1 12.2 13.8 128.9 69.9 52.1 4.2 6.6 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 6.6 19.9 14.7 126.2 70.0 53.2 6.4 11.9 19.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 6.9 17.6 12.6 124.7 69.5 52.4 3.5 12.2 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.4 17.7 12.4 123.8 68.5 53.5 5.0 7.5 15.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.7 14.7 12.5 113.4 64.2 50.2 4.2 8.2 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 6.1 12.8 15.0 109.4 65.7 50.7 6.0 10.1 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.1 14.6 15.2 135.6 72.0 52.8 0.8 4.3 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.8 12.6 12.5 118.1 66.9 51.0 4.3 6.4 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 2.9 11.4 11.1 109.9 68.3 53.7 2.3 6.0 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.0 14.8 16.2 123.5 70.0 53.2 4.1 8.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.3 8.8 11.5 107.0 65.0 51.1 0.9 4.8 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.8 13.6 18.5 123.0 69.2 54.1 4.3 7.1 12.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.5 10.8 12.7 128.3 68.1 51.8 4.3 7.8 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.3 11.0 11.6 105.8 66.6 53.0 1.7 5.5 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 6.3 9.7 11.9 104.7 63.9 49.5 2.0 3.0 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 6.5 20.4 14.4 118.0 66.7 51.5 5.7 10.9 20.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.9 8.9 14.1 127.5 67.6 53.6 1.8 6.1 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.3 11.4 13.0 119.5 70.0 52.7 2.5 6.6 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.7 12.7 119.5 63.7 52.1 2.7 4.7 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.1 9.5 14.5 127.4 70.6 51.6 2.1 6.3 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 8.8 31.2 17.3 123.8 69.4 53.1 7.5 15.3 27.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 7.8 8.6 11.3 109.7 65.8 50.8 1.5 3.3 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------