***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.03.2014.-16.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.1 69.1 44.8 38.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 0.7 1.2 8.4 77.1 46.0 40.6 0.9 2.0 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 1.9 4.2 9.2 77.0 47.5 41.9 1.8 4.4 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 3.6 5.6 11.3 75.6 45.2 43.1 4.0 6.4 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 1.9 3.3 11.7 77.4 46.8 43.1 1.8 4.3 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.3 4.4 12.6 76.6 51.2 45.4 2.0 4.3 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 1.0 1.9 8.0 73.8 42.6 39.1 1.1 2.5 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 14.2 14.3 13.3 85.1 53.3 47.3 7.5 13.0 16.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 5.5 4.1 11.8 78.1 49.1 43.4 2.5 4.4 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.8 7.4 13.4 84.1 52.3 46.5 2.3 7.3 8.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.8 5.9 11.4 79.5 50.1 44.6 1.8 5.9 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 6.3 5.6 11.1 80.4 52.3 45.4 2.9 4.8 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.2 4.5 11.2 75.0 48.2 42.7 3.3 4.6 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 9.3 7.4 12.4 85.2 51.5 46.8 2.0 7.4 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 1.1 2.5 10.3 75.1 49.6 44.6 0.9 2.5 6.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.6 5.5 10.8 74.9 49.0 42.8 2.6 5.6 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 1.1 2.1 8.3 78.5 44.8 41.4 0.9 2.7 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 7.0 5.9 14.8 89.0 54.5 48.8 3.4 5.4 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 1.8 3.0 8.7 79.0 46.3 42.0 1.0 4.7 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 5.7 4.8 16.6 85.4 54.3 47.4 3.0 4.4 8.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 1.6 3.2 10.1 75.4 49.4 42.2 1.2 3.3 5.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 1.3 2.3 8.9 82.4 45.9 43.1 0.8 2.7 3.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 1.1 2.1 9.3 80.1 46.7 43.5 0.5 2.5 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 9.1 6.8 12.3 85.1 51.2 46.5 1.7 6.7 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 1.6 2.9 10.7 73.0 43.7 41.2 0.6 3.6 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 4.2 3.7 11.5 79.8 52.5 44.7 1.3 2.8 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 2.1 3.1 9.4 70.4 43.9 39.4 1.1 4.9 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 2.0 2.7 10.7 74.4 47.5 43.1 2.1 3.7 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 10.2 8.8 15.5 88.8 55.0 48.8 4.9 8.4 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 1.0 1.2 8.4 75.2 44.7 39.9 0.6 2.3 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------