***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.03.2014.-09.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.8 90.5 56.1 47.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 8.2 7.6 11.3 98.4 61.1 50.2 2.1 5.7 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.6 13.1 11.7 97.7 60.4 49.1 2.0 7.8 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.7 16.4 17.2 133.7 70.5 58.1 4.1 6.9 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.3 12.7 15.6 119.7 65.2 53.8 2.6 6.3 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.5 6.3 17.4 111.8 61.6 53.6 2.7 4.2 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.9 5.4 10.9 94.1 59.3 48.8 1.7 3.8 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 17.7 21.3 16.8 116.9 63.6 55.5 8.6 13.8 21.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 1.8 12.2 14.8 109.0 63.3 50.8 1.5 4.2 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.9 10.7 16.6 113.7 63.3 53.2 2.3 8.8 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.9 7.7 14.8 115.6 62.4 52.9 1.8 4.6 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.0 8.8 15.0 118.0 63.8 55.5 2.3 3.8 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.5 10.0 15.7 112.2 61.1 53.6 2.5 6.7 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.8 16.6 15.4 105.2 60.6 51.3 4.5 12.1 18.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 11.7 14.2 18.7 149.2 78.5 63.4 1.6 5.0 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.1 8.5 15.6 117.3 64.8 54.5 4.2 6.1 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.4 6.4 10.5 92.9 59.6 48.9 0.9 3.4 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 8.7 12.8 18.3 113.5 62.1 54.8 2.0 6.3 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 9.0 11.2 11.6 100.6 62.3 50.6 2.1 6.4 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.4 9.3 20.8 112.4 60.9 54.8 2.7 7.9 10.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 1.5 8.4 12.4 99.9 59.0 48.8 1.9 3.5 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.1 7.0 10.9 92.4 57.3 48.2 1.4 6.4 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.4 9.8 12.3 103.7 61.9 51.3 2.7 7.7 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 12.6 11.8 15.4 107.3 61.5 52.1 2.6 8.9 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.9 6.3 13.7 102.9 58.9 50.0 0.7 5.7 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.7 5.6 16.0 117.0 59.9 55.4 1.3 4.1 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.1 5.4 12.0 91.7 55.6 47.1 1.4 4.5 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 10.4 10.3 18.0 140.0 75.2 61.0 1.8 3.3 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 14.8 16.0 19.4 112.9 62.1 55.3 4.6 12.0 16.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 7.8 8.0 11.4 98.2 61.5 50.0 2.4 4.7 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------