***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2014.-02.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.6 39.9 36.3 32.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.6 3.9 5.0 46.0 42.1 36.8 3.0 5.0 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.1 4.2 5.0 42.4 37.5 32.7 3.8 5.3 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.1 6.6 7.7 62.6 44.2 40.9 2.8 7.4 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.6 4.5 6.6 54.4 37.3 36.7 4.3 6.0 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.5 6.2 7.5 64.5 44.3 39.9 3.7 6.5 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.8 4.2 5.0 47.9 41.4 36.2 2.1 5.3 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 6.9 8.4 6.7 53.9 37.6 35.3 7.9 11.4 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.5 3.5 6.0 51.1 34.8 34.5 3.3 6.3 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 4.8 4.7 6.5 51.8 34.8 34.2 4.7 7.5 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.5 3.7 6.1 55.1 38.5 36.1 2.8 5.5 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.7 5.1 6.4 57.0 39.8 36.6 4.4 7.2 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 4.0 5.6 7.2 60.0 43.2 36.4 3.9 7.3 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 5.5 5.2 5.9 43.3 33.6 31.5 5.2 10.0 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 9.6 11.9 8.9 78.4 54.7 49.4 0.2 5.9 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.7 5.6 7.1 61.8 43.7 38.5 4.1 6.7 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.2 6.5 5.8 57.8 46.1 39.7 5.3 7.1 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 3.7 4.2 6.6 47.0 32.9 32.4 4.2 6.8 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.8 4.4 5.2 44.8 39.7 35.8 3.1 5.1 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 4.9 5.4 8.7 52.6 37.7 35.1 4.6 8.6 11.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 2.6 3.6 5.2 44.6 36.7 32.4 3.4 5.6 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.3 8.6 6.7 61.6 46.9 41.1 4.0 9.1 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.4 3.2 5.6 44.3 35.8 34.1 2.9 5.3 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 3.4 5.3 5.9 44.0 32.5 31.9 5.4 7.6 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.2 2.7 6.1 46.3 37.2 33.8 1.8 4.7 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.8 7.7 8.7 72.9 50.1 43.2 3.1 7.7 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.4 2.0 5.2 41.7 35.7 32.0 1.7 5.3 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 8.8 4.9 8.0 71.6 48.6 44.9 1.9 6.1 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 6.4 6.3 7.3 49.1 33.8 33.3 6.3 11.8 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 9.1 4.9 4.8 42.8 41.2 34.6 4.1 6.4 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------