***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2014.-23.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 9999.0 0.0 12.3 1.9 83.8 78.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 12.7 13.8 12.4 2.0 84.9 80.1 8.3 10.9 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 12.9 14.3 12.5 1.9 81.8 77.5 8.9 11.0 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 5.1 5.4 9.8 1.4 70.0 69.7 1.7 3.3 4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 13.0 13.0 10.7 1.7 73.8 72.7 9.2 11.3 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 45 55 100 11.5 11.2 8.9 1.5 72.4 69.4 8.4 10.1 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 12.3 13.6 12.3 2.1 85.3 80.7 7.7 10.6 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 2.4 2.0 9.3 1.6 73.7 71.4 -0.9 0.7 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 13.1 13.0 11.5 1.8 74.2 73.6 9.3 11.4 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 13.2 13.1 10.3 1.7 74.0 72.4 9.3 11.3 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 13.2 13.0 10.5 1.7 74.3 72.6 9.7 11.6 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 12.4 12.2 10.0 1.6 72.8 71.0 8.7 10.6 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 13.3 12.8 9.7 1.6 73.7 71.3 9.5 11.6 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 13.6 14.3 11.6 1.8 78.3 75.3 9.9 11.6 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 12.2 13.0 10.1 1.2 68.9 66.9 8.9 10.7 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 13.6 13.4 10.1 1.6 73.4 71.2 10.1 11.6 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 12.2 13.0 12.1 2.1 84.7 80.4 7.6 10.4 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 13.0 13.5 9.8 1.8 75.5 73.0 9.2 11.1 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 12.9 14.3 12.5 2.0 84.5 79.4 8.1 10.9 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 8.6 9.4 7.3 1.7 77.8 73.2 4.3 5.9 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 12.9 13.6 12.0 1.8 78.3 74.9 9.5 11.4 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 12.9 13.9 12.2 1.9 84.0 79.4 8.8 11.0 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 13.2 14.6 12.5 1.9 83.8 78.0 8.9 11.3 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 13.5 13.9 11.4 1.8 77.1 74.7 9.5 11.3 12.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 12.4 13.1 10.7 1.8 78.8 75.3 8.8 10.7 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 12.7 12.9 9.1 1.4 74.3 70.2 9.2 10.8 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 12.6 14.3 11.6 2.0 83.7 78.1 8.8 10.8 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 12.6 13.3 10.0 1.3 68.2 67.2 9.6 10.8 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 8.5 9.3 8.8 1.9 77.8 74.2 4.8 5.9 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 12.3 13.9 12.5 2.0 85.0 79.8 8.2 10.7 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------