***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.03.2014.-23.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 13.0 0.6 59.0 56.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 12.8 13.5 13.1 0.8 60.7 57.7 9.6 11.9 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.0 13.2 0.6 58.6 56.2 9.1 13.4 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.3 11.0 0.3 53.5 52.7 0.5 5.9 7.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 10.3 14.4 11.5 0.4 57.4 54.2 8.9 13.1 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 13.5 13.1 9.9 0.4 55.0 54.3 7.2 12.5 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 12.8 13.6 13.0 0.8 62.1 57.8 9.8 11.9 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 1.8 2.9 10.2 0.6 58.9 55.8 -1.7 0.5 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 14.1 14.6 12.1 0.5 59.6 54.8 8.4 13.1 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.9 14.6 11.0 0.6 59.7 55.7 7.9 12.8 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 14.1 14.1 11.3 0.5 58.1 54.8 8.6 13.0 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 9.0 14.0 11.0 0.5 57.2 55.0 7.2 12.3 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.1 13.9 10.6 0.5 56.1 54.7 8.6 13.1 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.2 12.3 0.8 59.8 57.0 9.7 13.4 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 14.2 13.6 11.1 0.2 52.2 51.7 9.0 13.4 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 14.9 14.7 11.0 0.4 56.1 54.3 8.9 14.0 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 11.8 12.9 12.9 0.8 61.7 57.7 9.1 10.9 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.5 14.2 10.5 0.7 60.8 56.7 8.1 12.5 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 13.3 13.6 13.3 0.8 59.5 57.4 9.6 12.3 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 4.2 10.0 8.1 0.8 62.5 57.7 3.8 7.0 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 14.3 13.9 12.6 0.5 59.3 55.0 8.8 13.2 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.8 13.6 13.0 0.8 60.6 57.3 9.9 11.8 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 13.9 14.0 13.3 0.7 59.1 57.0 9.6 12.9 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 14.0 14.0 12.1 0.7 59.6 56.5 9.5 13.1 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.3 11.4 0.4 55.7 54.1 9.2 13.0 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 9.3 13.0 10.2 0.5 56.2 54.3 7.9 12.0 15.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 10.5 13.4 12.2 0.5 58.3 55.4 9.3 12.9 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 15.2 14.6 11.2 0.2 54.2 52.2 8.5 14.5 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.3 8.7 9.6 0.9 62.2 57.8 3.0 7.1 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 13.1 13.8 13.2 0.7 60.7 57.4 9.4 12.1 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------