***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.03.2014.-16.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 9999.0 0.0 11.9 1.1 60.6 59.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 11.6 12.5 11.8 1.1 59.8 60.1 8.9 11.1 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 11.6 13.0 11.9 0.9 59.9 58.6 9.6 11.1 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 4.1 3.7 9.8 0.7 54.7 56.8 1.0 3.5 4.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 11.9 12.6 10.1 0.7 56.6 56.2 9.0 11.3 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 10.0 10.8 8.1 0.5 55.4 54.9 7.8 9.2 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 10.8 11.6 11.8 1.2 60.2 60.9 9.1 10.3 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 1.6 2.0 8.6 0.6 56.0 55.2 -1.4 1.0 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 11.8 12.8 10.6 0.7 58.4 55.8 9.5 11.0 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 11.5 13.1 9.4 0.6 56.5 55.1 9.0 10.7 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 11.8 12.9 9.7 0.6 57.0 55.4 9.0 11.2 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 11.0 11.0 9.4 0.5 54.5 54.7 8.9 10.3 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 11.9 12.0 8.8 0.5 55.6 54.5 9.7 11.3 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 12.4 13.0 10.6 0.7 53.1 55.2 9.6 11.9 13.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 11.7 11.5 10.0 0.7 56.1 57.0 8.4 11.2 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 11.9 12.6 9.3 0.5 55.4 55.0 9.9 11.2 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 89 11 100 10.8 11.6 11.5 1.1 59.2 60.0 7.9 10.4 13.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 11.5 12.9 8.9 0.7 56.6 55.0 9.0 10.7 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 11.5 12.6 11.9 1.0 59.6 59.1 9.0 11.0 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 7.8 7.9 6.5 0.9 61.8 57.8 4.6 7.3 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 11.8 13.2 11.3 0.8 59.7 57.3 9.5 11.1 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 12.1 12.5 11.6 1.0 57.5 58.2 9.2 11.6 14.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 12.1 12.9 11.8 0.9 58.4 57.5 9.5 11.6 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 11.9 12.9 10.5 0.7 56.1 55.3 10.2 11.3 13.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 11.3 12.1 10.3 1.0 59.0 58.8 8.3 10.7 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 11.4 12.0 8.5 0.5 54.8 54.5 9.7 10.8 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 10.9 12.0 11.2 1.1 60.6 60.1 9.4 10.4 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 11.9 12.0 9.9 0.6 54.8 55.9 8.3 11.3 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 7.4 7.7 7.9 0.8 57.7 56.4 4.1 6.8 8.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 11.0 12.0 11.9 1.1 59.8 60.2 9.0 10.5 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------