***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.03.2014.-09.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 9999.0 0.0 12.4 2.3 69.4 69.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 12.7 13.0 12.4 2.3 73.6 71.3 7.6 10.5 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 11.8 12.8 12.4 2.1 66.5 66.2 8.6 11.5 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 3.6 5.5 9.9 1.8 66.5 64.7 0.1 3.2 5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 11.7 13.1 10.5 2.0 66.4 64.3 8.5 11.4 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 46 54 100 11.7 12.3 9.1 2.2 68.8 66.8 7.4 10.1 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 12.5 12.9 12.4 2.5 74.4 73.1 7.2 10.5 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 1.0 1.8 9.3 2.1 65.4 65.5 -0.6 0.6 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 12.4 13.1 11.2 2.0 65.3 63.4 9.1 12.1 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 12.2 12.6 10.2 2.0 65.0 64.2 8.9 11.9 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 48 52 100 13.0 13.8 10.4 2.1 67.7 65.1 8.6 11.7 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 11.1 12.3 10.1 2.1 66.4 65.6 8.3 10.8 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 11.8 13.3 9.8 2.3 68.6 67.4 8.9 11.4 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 12.7 12.9 11.3 1.9 62.2 63.3 9.4 12.3 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 10.9 12.2 9.9 1.7 64.9 64.3 5.8 10.3 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 12.0 13.6 10.0 2.1 68.4 65.7 9.5 11.6 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 12.1 12.7 12.1 2.4 74.0 72.4 7.0 9.6 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 11.7 12.1 9.7 2.1 64.3 65.2 9.0 11.3 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 12.9 12.0 12.4 2.2 70.2 69.0 7.7 11.3 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 7.7 7.2 7.4 2.3 69.2 68.9 4.8 5.9 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 12.1 12.4 11.8 2.0 65.6 64.6 9.0 11.9 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 13.0 12.9 12.1 2.1 70.3 69.7 7.1 10.8 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 12.2 12.8 12.4 2.0 64.7 65.8 9.1 11.8 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 12.6 13.1 11.2 2.0 63.7 63.9 9.1 12.3 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 12.2 12.8 10.7 2.2 68.6 68.5 7.4 10.3 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 12.7 12.8 9.4 2.3 72.0 69.2 9.4 10.9 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 12.8 12.8 11.7 2.4 71.1 70.7 7.7 10.8 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 10.7 13.4 10.0 1.7 64.8 63.1 6.2 10.2 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 45 55 100 7.7 8.0 8.8 2.3 67.7 67.8 4.3 6.0 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 12.5 12.3 12.5 2.3 72.2 70.5 7.7 10.7 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------