***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2014.-02.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 0.0 12.1 3.8 81.1 82.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 13.3 13.5 12.2 3.9 81.1 83.0 4.4 7.3 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 15.2 15.8 12.5 3.9 82.1 82.5 6.2 7.7 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 8.0 8.6 8.6 2.8 77.2 75.8 -0.1 1.6 4.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 14.4 15.1 10.6 3.6 81.4 80.5 6.3 8.7 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 13 87 100 12.3 12.7 8.4 2.8 77.0 75.9 5.9 7.6 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 13.1 13.3 12.0 4.0 81.8 83.6 4.4 7.6 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 8 92 100 2.7 3.2 9.1 3.1 80.9 79.1 -2.1 0.6 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 15.3 16.1 11.9 3.9 83.2 81.8 7.0 9.2 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 4 96 100 14.9 16.1 10.4 3.6 83.2 80.8 6.6 9.6 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 15.1 15.8 10.6 3.5 82.5 80.4 6.3 9.5 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 13.3 14.2 9.6 3.1 80.4 78.7 6.7 8.3 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 9 91 100 14.0 14.7 9.7 3.0 80.2 78.4 7.1 9.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 4 96 100 15.1 16.3 12.1 4.1 83.8 82.0 6.2 8.5 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 11.6 13.9 9.3 2.2 75.2 69.7 4.5 7.6 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 14.9 15.6 10.0 3.2 80.7 79.1 7.5 9.9 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 12.4 12.4 11.8 4.0 82.3 83.4 4.2 6.8 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 7 93 100 14.9 15.6 10.0 3.6 83.4 81.4 7.1 9.0 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 13.9 14.3 12.4 4.0 81.7 82.9 4.6 6.6 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 8.2 9.5 7.3 2.9 81.0 78.6 2.4 4.6 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 15.2 15.5 12.2 3.9 81.5 81.6 6.8 8.8 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 13.7 14.0 12.0 3.9 82.3 83.0 4.6 7.4 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 14.7 15.0 12.5 4.0 83.0 82.7 5.3 7.5 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 4 96 100 14.7 16.0 11.8 3.9 84.3 82.1 6.6 9.8 13.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 1 99 100 14.2 14.6 10.5 3.5 80.8 80.5 5.7 7.5 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 12.0 12.6 8.3 2.4 78.2 75.4 6.7 9.6 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 14.1 15.0 11.4 3.8 81.7 82.3 6.3 7.6 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 13.3 15.1 9.1 2.5 76.2 72.3 5.8 8.1 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 8 92 100 9.6 10.2 9.1 3.5 82.8 81.3 2.9 5.3 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 13.8 13.9 12.3 3.9 81.1 83.0 4.4 7.3 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------