***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.03.2014.-23.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 3.9 0.6 60.4 58.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 2.3 2.4 3.8 0.8 64.2 61.3 0.0 1.7 2.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 4.6 5.3 3.6 0.7 63.3 60.1 2.1 4.0 5.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 -1.1 -0.8 1.1 0.5 60.0 57.7 -4.9 -1.8 -0.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.4 56.7 57.4 -0.6 0.8 2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 0.5 0.7 -0.4 0.6 58.4 60.0 -1.2 0.1 1.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 2.5 3.2 3.8 0.8 63.8 61.2 -0.1 2.1 3.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -4.9 -3.6 0.1 0.7 61.3 60.5 -8.0 -5.8 -3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 2.3 2.2 2.0 0.5 54.9 56.8 0.6 1.8 3.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 1.9 1.9 0.6 0.6 58.4 58.9 0.3 1.3 2.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 1.7 2.1 1.0 0.4 57.2 57.1 -0.1 1.3 3.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 0.7 1.3 0.8 0.6 59.2 58.3 -0.9 0.2 1.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 1.9 1.8 0.2 0.4 55.4 56.2 -0.1 1.6 2.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 3.2 3.1 2.0 0.6 62.2 59.8 1.1 2.5 3.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 2.9 2.9 1.6 0.5 59.5 57.2 0.6 2.6 3.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 2.6 2.6 0.6 0.4 56.2 55.9 0.4 2.3 3.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 2.7 3.3 3.7 0.8 63.6 61.0 0.2 2.4 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 0.2 1.0 0.1 0.8 61.4 60.9 -0.9 -0.2 1.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 2.8 3.1 3.7 0.8 64.2 60.8 -0.1 2.3 3.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 -2.4 -1.9 -1.5 1.0 62.9 62.4 -4.3 -2.9 -1.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 2.3 2.3 2.9 0.5 57.5 57.1 0.7 1.8 2.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 2.1 2.3 3.5 0.7 62.1 60.1 0.2 1.6 2.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 2.6 3.0 3.3 0.7 63.1 60.4 0.3 1.2 3.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 2.2 2.2 1.9 0.7 61.8 60.4 0.4 1.5 2.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 1.8 2.4 2.1 0.5 60.4 57.4 0.5 1.4 2.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 1.6 1.6 0.5 0.5 56.3 57.0 0.2 1.4 2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 2.3 2.2 3.1 0.5 60.3 58.1 0.2 1.8 4.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 0.7 1.2 1.3 0.5 58.6 57.0 -0.9 0.1 2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 1.2 -0.3 -0.4 0.9 61.6 62.3 -4.0 -1.0 0.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 2.9 3.0 3.9 0.8 64.1 61.0 0.2 2.4 3.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------