***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.03.2014.-16.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 2.8 0.6 63.8 58.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 1.2 1.3 2.5 0.6 61.0 58.6 -0.2 0.6 2.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 3.2 3.9 2.5 0.7 62.8 59.4 1.0 2.5 4.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 -1.8 -1.6 0.4 1.0 68.1 63.6 -5.2 -3.6 -1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.8 65.9 61.5 -1.3 -0.1 0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 0.3 0.2 -1.0 1.4 71.5 67.4 -1.7 -0.9 0.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 1.0 1.3 2.5 0.6 61.4 58.4 -0.2 0.5 1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 -4.4 -4.1 -0.8 1.0 63.8 63.5 -7.6 -6.5 -3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.6 60.1 58.1 0.0 0.7 1.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 2.1 1.9 -0.3 0.9 61.3 61.2 -0.3 1.1 2.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 1.9 1.6 0.2 0.9 67.2 63.1 -0.4 0.8 1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 0.6 0.2 -0.1 0.9 64.5 62.3 -1.4 -0.8 0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 1.7 1.1 -0.6 1.0 63.9 63.1 -0.4 0.5 1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 1.8 2.5 1.1 0.9 62.2 60.6 0.0 1.5 2.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 2.2 1.7 0.9 0.9 64.9 61.9 -0.2 1.0 1.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 2.4 2.1 -0.1 1.0 67.0 63.7 0.1 1.1 2.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 1.1 1.2 2.3 0.5 58.6 56.6 -0.1 0.6 2.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 0.3 0.0 -0.8 1.1 61.9 63.1 -1.8 -0.4 0.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 1.3 1.5 2.5 0.6 61.0 58.8 -0.3 0.8 1.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 -1.9 -2.0 -2.4 1.4 63.8 65.8 -4.5 -3.1 -1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 0.8 0.6 1.9 0.6 62.1 57.8 -0.2 0.3 0.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 0.9 0.9 2.2 0.5 57.9 56.4 -0.1 0.4 1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 1.1 1.2 2.2 0.7 61.9 59.6 -0.4 0.6 1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.9 62.8 61.3 -0.1 0.7 1.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 1.1 1.4 1.2 0.8 64.2 60.6 -0.5 0.6 1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 1.6 1.1 -0.5 0.8 60.9 61.8 -0.6 0.4 1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 1.2 1.2 2.0 0.7 62.6 58.9 -0.1 0.9 1.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0 68.1 63.6 -1.1 -0.7 0.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 -0.3 -0.9 -1.3 1.4 63.3 65.8 -3.8 -2.5 -0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 1.2 1.6 2.6 0.7 62.5 58.9 0.0 0.7 1.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------