***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.03.2014.-09.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 9999.0 0.0 4.4 2.9 86.3 81.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 2.2 3.7 4.0 2.9 86.9 81.8 -1.1 0.4 1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 4.4 5.9 4.0 2.9 88.6 83.3 1.1 2.8 4.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 -0.8 1.0 1.7 3.2 91.8 88.7 -5.5 -4.1 -1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 2.3 3.6 1.8 2.9 90.1 86.0 -1.9 -0.3 0.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 3 97 100 1.1 2.9 0.4 3.4 94.0 90.5 -2.9 -0.9 0.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 2.6 3.6 4.1 2.9 85.0 80.7 -0.8 0.7 1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 7 93 100 -3.3 -2.5 0.6 3.1 88.5 85.7 -7.8 -6.1 -3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 3.1 4.1 2.4 2.7 87.2 82.2 -0.5 1.1 2.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 10 90 100 2.9 4.5 1.2 3.0 88.2 84.2 -0.5 0.5 1.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 3 97 100 3.0 4.3 1.6 3.0 89.4 86.6 -1.1 0.4 1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 8 92 100 0.8 2.1 1.2 2.9 88.3 85.8 -2.4 -0.8 0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 5 95 100 2.2 3.2 0.8 2.9 89.5 86.6 -1.1 -0.3 0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 3.2 3.9 2.4 2.9 86.4 83.1 0.1 1.1 3.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 5 95 100 3.1 4.4 2.1 3.2 92.5 88.4 -0.7 0.4 2.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 3.7 4.5 1.2 3.0 89.8 87.8 -0.5 0.8 1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 2.6 3.3 3.8 2.6 81.0 78.7 -0.4 1.1 2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 0.5 1.8 0.8 3.4 90.3 85.0 -2.9 -1.5 -0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 2.6 3.8 3.9 2.9 88.4 82.6 -0.8 0.8 1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 11 89 100 -1.5 0.2 -0.7 3.5 88.3 85.0 -7.2 -3.8 -1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 2.4 4.0 3.4 2.8 87.6 81.9 -0.9 0.3 1.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 2.2 2.8 3.6 2.5 81.9 78.7 -1.0 1.0 2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 2.4 3.1 3.6 2.9 88.0 83.4 -1.0 0.2 1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 12 88 100 2.6 3.6 2.3 3.1 89.6 84.7 -0.9 0.0 1.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 2.0 4.4 2.7 3.2 92.5 86.8 -0.4 0.4 1.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 1.8 3.2 0.7 2.5 89.4 83.6 -1.6 0.2 1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 14 86 100 3.1 4.5 3.6 3.0 88.5 83.2 -0.5 0.6 1.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 1.9 2.8 1.8 3.1 91.8 88.2 -2.2 -1.4 1.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 9 91 100 0.1 1.9 0.3 3.5 91.7 86.7 -3.4 -1.8 -0.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 2.9 4.3 4.2 2.9 87.5 82.1 -0.5 0.8 2.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------