***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.02.2015.-22.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 35.7 44.6 59.3 129.6 75.7 68.1 17.3 21.9 40.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 46.5 52.3 57.3 127.0 75.4 66.0 15.5 28.0 31.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 56.8 67.4 61.7 131.3 77.6 70.4 23.4 32.4 50.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 54.0 56.0 66.2 125.3 72.2 66.5 26.2 35.7 53.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 49.7 55.1 68.2 133.1 79.4 70.9 29.1 39.0 48.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 44.8 51.2 71.2 133.8 80.4 72.0 22.6 35.1 43.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 39.4 37.8 56.1 124.3 72.1 64.3 16.3 27.1 34.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 77.4 89.0 74.7 141.6 85.0 75.0 53.7 68.9 75.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 43.4 49.5 69.6 137.0 82.6 72.8 23.5 34.3 41.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 49.7 60.7 76.4 140.9 85.1 74.9 29.4 38.9 49.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 43.9 62.6 66.0 137.6 85.3 72.0 24.8 31.0 41.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 49.3 58.2 64.6 139.3 83.6 73.4 28.2 35.8 44.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 50.8 59.8 68.2 137.1 82.8 73.3 30.4 36.8 46.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 72.6 89.7 80.1 142.8 86.4 75.7 36.2 47.1 65.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 55.8 63.6 63.0 122.7 67.9 63.7 16.1 30.7 61.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 44.5 51.8 65.4 134.9 82.3 71.1 27.6 34.1 39.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 36.8 41.1 55.0 126.0 72.0 65.1 18.2 22.7 38.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 53.5 67.8 85.1 142.2 84.4 76.4 27.8 34.9 43.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 44.9 50.6 59.7 130.3 77.4 67.9 19.3 32.9 40.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 49.3 55.3 92.7 137.6 82.1 74.0 27.1 38.2 43.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 49.7 60.0 64.7 135.5 81.1 72.2 18.8 30.7 49.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 43.0 45.3 59.2 131.4 75.7 68.0 20.0 25.8 35.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 43.0 51.9 64.7 135.2 80.7 70.8 20.5 29.0 40.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 70.2 85.6 76.2 138.9 82.4 74.4 35.5 42.5 64.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 48.1 55.7 67.9 126.9 74.1 67.6 17.9 27.4 43.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 44.7 52.5 66.0 140.2 81.6 74.6 24.2 34.7 42.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 43.2 49.8 64.4 127.3 73.9 67.1 16.8 25.5 45.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 47.6 55.5 64.2 125.9 72.2 66.0 17.3 26.5 50.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 74.5 88.2 89.7 142.4 84.3 76.4 47.6 60.5 68.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 45.4 50.5 58.0 127.3 75.5 66.7 14.6 33.0 40.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------