***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2015.-22.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 1.8 7.2 10.5 107.5 66.5 54.3 2.1 3.7 7.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 5.9 7.2 10.3 106.9 60.2 53.2 1.4 3.8 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 2.6 11.1 10.7 102.9 64.0 53.0 2.4 5.1 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.9 13.1 13.6 105.3 66.7 53.3 3.9 8.3 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 5.5 13.4 13.2 105.4 64.5 53.3 4.4 10.2 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.6 10.8 15.9 110.1 62.5 52.6 2.3 7.3 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.2 5.7 10.3 107.8 59.8 53.9 2.3 4.4 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 10.3 25.7 14.8 113.9 68.9 54.0 9.3 16.8 24.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.8 11.3 12.8 104.2 62.0 52.5 4.9 8.8 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 8.1 18.6 14.4 107.5 66.1 53.3 8.1 14.8 18.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 6.5 17.5 13.2 109.5 65.7 54.0 3.8 11.9 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.6 17.5 13.2 114.2 66.6 54.5 5.0 6.8 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.4 13.6 14.2 108.9 61.9 53.8 3.4 9.5 15.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.8 13.2 102.8 61.1 51.7 6.6 10.6 13.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 1.2 7.7 13.5 106.0 63.8 52.1 0.8 2.7 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.7 10.7 13.5 107.2 64.4 53.2 3.7 6.9 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 6.1 8.5 10.0 107.8 61.1 53.0 1.6 4.4 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.5 15.0 15.6 107.3 63.5 53.2 5.1 11.9 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.2 7.2 10.4 105.5 60.9 52.5 1.1 4.3 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 4.7 13.4 17.9 110.2 63.7 52.0 4.8 8.3 13.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.2 9.3 11.4 102.5 59.7 52.3 5.0 7.8 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 5.6 9.3 10.7 112.2 61.6 53.2 1.1 3.0 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 1.6 7.9 10.8 102.7 60.4 51.7 1.9 2.9 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 7.5 20.0 13.3 103.5 63.2 52.8 5.3 12.6 21.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.8 9.0 12.8 107.0 62.6 53.9 1.8 6.7 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 4.0 11.3 13.4 112.6 62.9 54.1 2.5 8.3 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 6.7 9.7 12.0 109.2 63.4 54.5 2.1 4.6 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.1 11.1 13.8 105.3 66.1 52.6 0.5 6.9 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 10.1 27.9 16.4 108.5 62.9 52.6 7.2 18.5 29.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 5.9 7.6 10.4 107.1 62.3 53.8 1.9 3.3 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------