***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2015.-15.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 4.8 6.0 15.3 129.6 72.0 63.2 1.1 1.9 4.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 4.2 5.1 15.1 130.8 71.4 63.3 0.5 1.2 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 5.0 8.7 15.4 125.7 72.1 61.8 1.9 3.4 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 11.4 12.5 15.6 119.1 74.3 59.7 4.0 7.4 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 5.0 9.0 16.3 123.0 74.6 59.4 1.1 3.8 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 5.1 8.4 16.3 117.8 71.2 60.3 1.7 3.5 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 3.5 5.8 15.1 130.8 74.1 63.6 0.9 2.2 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 16.5 18.5 19.5 140.6 77.7 62.9 4.3 11.9 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 4.5 7.9 16.8 126.1 73.9 59.2 1.5 3.0 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 6.5 9.2 19.2 132.6 75.3 60.8 2.6 5.0 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.4 9.0 16.0 128.2 74.1 60.5 2.1 4.3 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 8.6 9.8 16.1 134.1 76.6 62.1 1.7 3.7 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 6.5 9.0 15.9 123.0 70.8 60.7 1.5 4.1 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 8.4 10.5 19.3 129.3 71.3 61.4 2.9 6.9 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.0 7.5 13.3 112.3 69.2 57.5 0.8 3.2 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.9 10.9 15.1 123.5 72.3 59.7 1.3 4.0 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 5.2 5.3 14.3 132.8 72.9 63.7 0.9 2.3 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 7.8 9.2 21.8 135.2 75.3 61.5 2.2 4.1 6.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 6.4 7.7 15.2 129.4 71.5 62.7 0.9 3.2 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 7.3 8.6 26.0 149.3 77.6 65.2 3.1 4.7 6.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 4.2 6.8 15.8 130.6 74.6 61.9 1.4 2.3 4.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 4.3 4.7 14.7 130.1 72.8 63.0 0.5 1.3 3.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 4.8 9.7 15.8 127.1 71.6 61.5 0.9 2.8 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.4 12.2 18.8 128.3 73.4 60.7 1.8 6.4 7.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.8 8.6 17.6 131.1 75.3 63.3 0.8 3.5 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 7.7 9.3 15.5 129.1 71.0 63.0 0.8 1.9 7.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 5.2 7.3 17.0 131.6 73.2 63.4 0.6 4.5 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 1.8 9.3 14.2 116.2 72.2 58.3 1.7 3.4 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 14.4 11.7 23.8 142.1 75.7 63.3 3.2 7.9 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 7.0 6.7 15.2 128.2 71.5 63.0 0.4 1.3 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------