***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2015.-08.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 8.5 9.3 14.3 120.6 63.0 60.2 5.3 7.4 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 8.7 7.7 12.6 99.9 54.7 53.7 3.9 7.3 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 11.8 15.0 14.8 119.4 64.8 61.1 1.7 10.1 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 15.0 18.3 15.9 121.9 72.7 62.5 5.0 7.4 15.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 15.6 19.3 17.9 140.4 75.4 67.9 6.2 9.9 16.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 12.1 14.6 20.5 154.4 76.3 69.5 3.3 6.0 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 7.9 7.2 12.6 98.5 54.4 53.3 2.0 6.7 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 26.4 29.8 19.2 142.7 75.0 68.8 11.4 18.4 28.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 13.0 16.6 19.3 148.1 77.1 70.4 2.8 6.8 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 13.7 14.4 20.9 151.5 77.6 71.6 7.9 12.5 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 12.4 15.3 17.2 144.9 76.6 68.8 1.9 6.4 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 11.2 13.0 16.3 139.3 72.9 67.4 2.8 6.7 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 14.3 14.6 18.4 151.1 73.8 70.1 4.7 8.5 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 22.3 25.1 20.0 130.8 70.9 65.2 5.4 15.2 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.0 14.4 13.5 103.3 64.5 56.4 1.0 5.6 15.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 12.9 13.9 17.3 144.4 74.4 68.3 5.4 6.8 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 7.1 7.0 11.9 95.3 54.8 51.6 2.1 6.1 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 15.6 15.4 23.6 151.0 74.3 71.9 6.6 9.9 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 8.4 11.1 13.3 104.1 57.6 55.0 3.0 6.7 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 11.7 11.1 23.7 130.4 68.7 65.8 4.3 8.9 10.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 14.6 19.2 17.0 138.1 72.7 67.0 2.4 4.8 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 8.4 8.0 12.5 97.7 54.6 51.5 4.9 7.7 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 8.6 12.1 15.0 113.9 66.6 58.8 3.0 6.9 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 18.1 20.0 20.0 137.9 71.0 67.6 6.9 11.4 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 6.5 15.1 16.6 122.7 66.9 61.7 1.5 4.4 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 12.4 15.3 16.6 138.8 73.3 67.0 3.2 5.1 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 7.1 9.2 15.7 119.7 62.9 60.2 1.9 5.4 10.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 12.4 12.6 15.3 119.7 70.1 61.4 1.8 4.1 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 20.5 19.6 24.3 144.0 73.5 70.0 9.0 14.9 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 8.2 8.7 13.0 104.8 57.4 55.4 2.4 6.1 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------