***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.02.2015.-22.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 11.3 10.0 9.3 -0.6 43.5 43.8 9.0 10.5 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 8.1 9.4 9.2 -0.6 37.6 42.3 7.9 10.4 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 8.7 9.3 9.2 -0.8 36.1 40.4 8.7 11.0 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 3.9 2.0 7.2 -0.7 42.6 43.4 1.5 3.1 5.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 8.8 9.7 7.6 -0.9 37.2 41.0 9.0 11.1 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 8.0 8.5 6.2 -0.7 40.0 42.7 8.2 9.9 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 7.8 9.4 9.2 -0.5 42.4 44.0 7.5 10.2 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -1.0 -1.4 6.0 -1.3 30.0 36.2 -0.9 0.4 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 9.2 9.1 8.2 -1.0 33.8 39.9 9.0 11.3 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 9.0 8.6 6.8 -1.3 29.8 36.7 9.0 11.3 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 9.2 10.0 7.3 -1.0 38.4 40.3 9.6 11.5 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 8.7 8.7 6.9 -1.1 33.8 38.2 8.6 10.6 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 9.4 9.5 6.7 -1.0 36.9 39.4 9.4 11.3 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 8.4 9.1 7.8 -1.4 27.7 34.4 9.4 11.6 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.8 9.8 8.1 -0.3 48.2 48.3 8.2 10.1 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 9.7 10.2 7.1 -0.9 38.3 41.0 9.8 11.6 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 7.5 8.2 8.9 -0.6 36.7 42.7 7.4 10.2 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 8.2 8.3 5.9 -1.6 24.7 32.4 8.6 11.0 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 8.1 7.7 9.2 -0.7 34.4 40.6 7.7 10.7 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 4.2 3.6 3.5 -1.7 22.4 30.0 4.0 5.9 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 9.1 9.7 8.8 -0.8 37.1 41.2 9.2 11.4 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 7.9 8.2 9.0 -0.7 33.2 40.1 8.2 10.7 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 8.5 8.4 9.1 -0.9 30.4 38.4 8.6 11.2 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 8.5 8.5 7.7 -1.3 27.3 34.9 9.2 11.2 12.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.8 10.1 7.9 -0.5 44.9 45.3 8.5 10.2 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 9.1 9.2 6.4 -0.9 35.5 39.6 9.0 10.6 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.4 9.9 8.6 -0.5 44.5 44.7 8.5 10.8 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 8.0 9.7 7.6 -0.6 43.7 44.4 9.0 10.2 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 4.0 3.4 4.9 -1.7 24.2 31.7 4.4 6.0 7.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 8.1 9.5 9.3 -0.6 39.3 42.5 8.0 10.2 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------