***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2015.-22.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9.7 11.7 10.9 -0.5 46.2 45.8 8.9 12.4 14.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 10.0 11.5 10.8 -0.5 47.1 45.2 9.8 12.0 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 10.3 11.5 11.0 -0.5 45.1 45.4 9.0 13.1 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 2.2 5.4 9.3 -0.3 47.0 48.0 0.5 5.8 7.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 10.1 12.5 9.4 -0.4 45.4 46.7 9.1 13.0 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.3 11.6 7.8 -0.3 46.4 47.9 7.2 12.5 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.5 11.5 10.7 -0.5 48.0 45.8 9.4 11.6 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -1.8 0.1 7.9 -0.7 42.8 45.0 -1.7 1.0 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 9.9 11.9 9.9 -0.6 44.6 45.9 8.6 12.8 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 9.5 11.4 8.6 -0.7 43.0 45.0 8.2 13.1 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 10.0 12.7 9.1 -0.5 45.0 46.4 8.9 13.0 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 9.2 11.2 8.8 -0.5 43.5 46.1 7.3 12.7 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.2 12.6 8.4 -0.5 43.6 46.5 9.0 13.3 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 10.7 11.2 9.8 -0.7 43.3 44.4 9.9 13.6 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 14.2 12.9 9.6 -0.1 47.9 49.4 9.3 13.1 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 14.8 12.9 8.8 -0.4 45.4 46.9 9.1 13.9 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.7 10.5 10.6 -0.5 47.5 45.7 9.2 10.8 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 9.8 11.0 7.8 -1.0 42.7 43.2 8.6 12.9 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 10.2 11.4 10.9 -0.5 46.5 45.1 9.5 12.6 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.4 6.3 5.3 -1.1 41.7 42.0 3.8 7.3 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 10.1 12.1 10.5 -0.5 46.3 46.1 8.9 12.9 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 13.0 11.3 10.8 -0.5 47.1 45.5 9.7 11.9 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 10.5 11.9 10.9 -0.6 45.8 45.0 9.6 12.8 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 10.4 11.1 9.6 -0.8 42.6 44.2 9.4 13.1 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 9.6 12.1 9.4 -0.4 45.9 46.5 8.9 12.5 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.5 11.3 8.2 -0.5 43.9 46.4 8.5 12.6 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 10.0 11.8 10.1 -0.5 46.1 45.7 9.1 12.4 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 10.4 13.7 9.5 -0.2 47.5 48.6 8.9 13.7 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 4.4 7.0 6.7 -1.1 41.8 42.6 3.5 7.3 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 10.0 11.4 10.9 -0.5 46.8 45.3 9.4 12.0 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------