***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2015.-15.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 7.6 8.6 8.9 -1.3 36.8 38.7 7.9 10.6 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 7.5 9.5 8.9 -1.2 40.8 39.2 8.9 10.3 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 7.9 9.6 9.0 -1.4 36.8 38.8 9.1 11.0 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 3.8 1.8 7.3 -1.1 37.1 41.7 1.0 2.5 4.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 8.2 8.4 7.3 -1.5 35.1 38.9 8.1 11.0 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 7.2 8.3 5.6 -1.4 37.8 39.7 7.4 9.3 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 7.6 9.2 8.8 -1.2 40.0 38.6 8.6 9.9 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 -1.9 -1.3 5.5 -2.0 32.8 35.3 -1.3 0.8 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 8.0 8.9 7.7 -1.7 34.6 37.7 8.8 10.7 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 7.9 8.4 6.3 -1.9 33.2 35.7 8.4 11.0 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 7.7 8.3 6.9 -1.7 34.0 37.6 8.2 10.7 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 7.5 8.4 6.5 -1.8 33.4 36.5 8.3 10.1 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 8.6 9.7 6.0 -1.7 34.1 36.9 9.6 10.7 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 8.0 9.3 7.6 -1.6 35.3 38.4 9.2 11.8 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.4 9.1 8.0 -0.7 40.6 44.3 8.2 10.2 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 8.6 9.5 6.6 -1.6 35.8 38.2 9.2 11.2 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 7.5 8.9 8.7 -1.2 39.9 39.3 7.6 9.8 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 7.7 8.7 5.5 -2.1 32.4 34.7 8.7 10.6 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 7.6 9.1 9.1 -1.2 39.6 39.5 8.5 10.6 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 3.2 3.9 2.9 -2.3 30.7 31.8 4.2 6.0 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 8.2 9.3 8.4 -1.5 35.6 38.3 9.1 11.0 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 8.0 9.6 8.9 -1.1 39.2 40.1 8.1 11.1 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 7.7 9.6 9.0 -1.3 37.6 39.6 9.1 11.0 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 8.3 9.8 7.4 -1.8 34.4 37.2 9.6 11.2 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.5 8.7 7.5 -1.3 36.1 39.4 7.8 10.4 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 8.4 9.4 5.8 -1.7 33.5 36.8 9.3 10.6 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 8.0 8.9 8.1 -1.4 36.8 38.7 8.8 10.2 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 7.7 9.1 7.7 -1.0 39.1 42.5 8.5 10.7 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 3.2 3.3 4.4 -2.2 32.1 34.4 3.3 5.9 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 7.6 9.2 9.0 -1.2 40.5 39.0 8.2 10.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------