***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2015.-08.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 11.8 9.9 8.7 -0.8 44.4 42.4 7.4 11.4 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 10.0 8.9 8.8 -0.7 45.4 43.6 7.7 9.3 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 11.7 9.3 8.7 -1.1 41.5 40.8 8.6 11.1 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 4.0 2.3 6.9 -0.7 45.3 43.6 -0.1 3.3 5.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.9 9.5 6.8 -1.3 39.9 39.6 8.8 11.2 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.0 7.5 5.1 -1.6 36.1 37.4 7.1 10.0 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 9.9 8.8 8.7 -0.6 45.9 44.2 7.3 9.2 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 1.2 -1.1 5.2 -1.8 35.2 36.0 -1.4 0.5 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 12.4 9.9 7.3 -1.5 38.2 38.3 9.4 11.8 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 12.0 9.8 6.0 -1.8 36.4 36.6 9.1 11.2 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 12.3 9.1 6.5 -1.5 37.1 38.2 8.9 11.6 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.5 8.8 6.1 -1.7 35.4 36.4 8.5 10.7 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.1 9.4 5.6 -1.8 35.7 35.7 8.9 11.2 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.6 10.6 7.1 -1.6 39.2 37.8 9.7 11.8 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 9.1 8.0 7.7 -0.2 47.4 47.2 6.1 8.4 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.4 9.5 6.2 -1.5 36.8 37.9 9.4 11.5 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 9.5 8.1 8.6 -0.6 45.5 44.8 6.7 8.9 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 11.5 9.7 5.1 -2.0 35.9 34.6 9.5 10.5 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 10.7 9.1 8.8 -0.8 43.8 42.5 7.5 10.0 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 3.1 3.9 2.7 -2.1 30.8 32.1 4.2 5.7 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 12.1 9.7 8.1 -1.2 41.2 39.6 8.9 11.5 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 10.7 9.6 8.6 -0.7 44.5 43.8 6.9 9.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 11.4 10.0 8.6 -1.1 41.2 41.0 9.2 10.7 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.7 10.2 6.9 -1.7 38.4 37.1 9.6 12.1 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 10.2 9.3 7.3 -0.8 46.4 43.2 7.5 9.5 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 8.2 8.7 5.3 -1.7 34.1 35.5 8.6 10.8 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 11.0 10.1 8.0 -0.8 45.3 42.8 8.1 10.4 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 10.3 8.6 7.3 -0.7 45.2 43.9 6.5 9.4 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 2.6 4.5 4.0 -2.0 33.2 33.7 4.5 5.8 8.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 10.2 9.0 8.8 -0.8 45.0 43.1 7.7 9.5 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------