***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.02.2015.-01.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 95 5 100 8.3 9.5 8.6 0.4 55.2 55.9 5.9 8.0 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 94 6 100 6.8 7.2 8.2 0.0 53.0 51.5 4.5 6.5 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 95 5 100 8.0 7.7 8.3 -0.2 51.3 49.9 6.0 7.6 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 91 9 100 1.2 0.5 5.2 -0.6 49.5 49.2 -1.3 0.5 4.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 93 7 100 9.1 8.6 6.6 -0.3 48.6 49.2 5.6 8.6 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 93 7 100 7.5 8.1 6.1 0.4 52.5 54.4 5.4 7.1 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 95 5 100 6.6 7.7 8.4 0.3 55.7 55.0 4.6 6.3 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 0.3 -1.4 5.5 -0.6 43.5 45.1 -2.8 0.1 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 9.2 8.5 7.8 -0.1 49.5 49.9 6.1 8.5 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 9.6 8.0 6.4 -0.6 45.4 45.7 5.9 8.8 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 92 8 100 9.2 8.1 6.9 -0.2 47.6 49.5 6.0 8.7 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 91 9 100 8.7 7.1 6.3 -0.3 44.9 47.2 5.5 8.2 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 93 7 100 8.6 7.7 6.9 0.1 48.4 50.5 6.4 8.1 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 10.2 6.6 6.6 -1.5 39.1 38.7 6.2 8.8 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 96 4 100 7.5 8.0 7.0 -0.1 54.5 53.0 4.6 7.2 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 93 7 100 9.6 8.9 6.9 0.0 49.3 50.4 6.5 9.1 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 96 4 100 6.2 7.1 7.8 0.0 53.7 51.4 4.5 6.0 9.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 9.9 7.4 5.3 -1.2 40.2 40.0 6.2 8.7 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 93 7 100 6.8 6.3 8.1 -0.3 49.6 48.6 4.7 6.3 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 4.4 2.4 3.2 -1.4 37.6 38.7 2.0 3.5 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 93 7 100 9.0 8.8 8.3 0.0 51.9 52.1 6.0 8.5 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 94 6 100 6.9 6.0 7.5 -0.6 45.7 45.7 4.8 6.5 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 91 9 100 7.5 6.4 7.8 -0.8 44.4 44.3 6.0 6.8 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 9.6 7.6 6.8 -1.1 40.8 41.6 6.4 8.6 12.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 95 5 100 7.8 8.2 7.3 0.4 59.3 57.7 4.8 7.5 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 92 8 100 9.1 8.8 6.1 0.2 50.6 52.0 6.1 8.7 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 94 6 100 8.3 8.4 8.2 0.5 58.3 57.8 5.3 8.0 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 93 7 100 8.2 7.7 6.1 -0.5 50.1 49.1 5.2 7.7 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 6.3 3.3 4.4 -1.4 38.2 38.7 1.9 5.2 7.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 95 5 100 6.7 6.9 8.4 0.1 53.3 52.7 4.7 6.4 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------