***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2015.-22.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 0.0 1.1 1.5 -0.6 41.3 43.2 -0.1 1.3 2.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 -0.1 0.6 1.4 -0.5 41.4 44.9 0.2 1.3 2.5 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 1.8 2.6 1.2 -0.6 39.5 43.4 2.1 3.6 5.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -4.3 -2.2 -0.8 -0.5 44.5 45.5 -5.4 -2.0 0.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 -0.6 0.0 -0.8 -0.6 39.8 44.5 -0.4 0.4 1.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 -1.0 -0.7 -2.5 -0.6 38.6 43.1 -0.8 -0.1 0.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 0.1 1.2 1.5 -0.4 45.6 45.8 0.0 1.7 3.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -7.3 -8.0 -2.6 -1.0 33.5 40.1 -8.0 -5.3 -3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 0.4 0.8 -0.3 -0.6 38.8 43.9 0.6 1.9 3.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 0.5 0.5 -2.1 -0.9 35.1 40.8 0.5 1.5 2.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 0.1 0.3 -1.2 -0.7 37.1 42.9 0.1 1.0 2.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 -0.8 -0.9 -1.5 -0.8 35.9 42.3 -1.0 0.0 0.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 0.2 0.6 -1.8 -0.6 36.2 43.6 0.2 1.1 2.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 1.1 1.2 -0.5 -0.8 37.6 40.8 1.2 2.3 2.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 0.4 2.0 -0.1 -0.4 47.3 46.1 0.4 2.1 2.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 1.0 0.8 -1.4 -0.6 37.2 44.0 0.5 2.0 2.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 0.6 0.9 1.5 -0.4 42.5 46.1 0.4 2.1 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 -1.4 -1.2 -3.0 -1.2 32.3 38.6 -1.1 -0.2 0.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 -0.1 0.9 1.3 -0.5 40.5 44.1 0.0 1.5 3.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 -4.0 -4.1 -4.7 -1.2 31.6 38.6 -4.1 -2.7 -2.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 0.3 0.9 0.7 -0.6 40.7 43.8 0.2 1.8 2.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 -0.2 0.6 1.4 -0.5 40.5 44.5 0.3 0.9 2.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 -0.3 0.4 1.0 -0.5 41.1 43.5 0.2 0.8 2.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 0.2 0.7 -0.8 -0.9 34.8 40.5 0.5 1.2 2.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 0.2 1.1 0.0 -0.5 45.1 44.1 0.1 1.2 2.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 0.3 0.9 -1.4 -0.5 39.1 43.8 0.6 1.3 1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 -0.1 1.0 0.8 -0.6 43.7 43.9 0.2 1.7 2.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 -1.0 -0.1 -0.5 -0.4 44.5 45.7 -1.2 0.1 1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 -3.4 -3.6 -3.6 -1.2 31.6 38.2 -3.5 -1.5 0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 0.4 1.1 1.5 -0.5 40.8 44.4 0.2 1.9 3.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------