***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2015.-15.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 -1.5 0.0 0.5 -0.9 36.3 38.7 -0.2 0.7 1.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 -1.0 0.0 0.5 -0.6 43.8 41.1 -0.4 0.3 1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 0.7 1.3 0.3 -0.7 35.2 38.5 1.1 2.3 3.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -5.7 -5.0 -1.6 -0.4 41.9 42.4 -5.2 -3.9 -1.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 -1.8 -1.6 -1.7 -0.6 38.7 38.7 -1.7 -0.9 0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 -3.0 -3.3 -3.6 -0.7 27.3 39.1 -2.4 -1.2 -0.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 -1.0 0.1 0.6 -0.6 44.1 41.7 -0.2 0.4 1.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 -8.7 -8.6 -3.7 -1.2 25.5 32.5 -8.5 -6.7 -4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 -1.2 -0.1 -1.2 -0.8 34.8 36.6 -0.3 0.3 0.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 -1.3 -1.3 -3.1 -1.2 28.0 33.1 -0.7 0.5 1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 -1.7 -0.3 -2.0 -0.7 34.8 37.4 -0.7 0.4 1.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 -3.0 -2.1 -2.4 -0.9 28.7 35.6 -2.0 -1.3 0.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 -2.3 -0.9 -2.9 -0.8 28.8 37.6 -0.7 -0.1 0.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 -0.6 -0.4 -1.4 -0.9 31.1 36.3 -0.3 1.4 2.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 1.3 0.1 -0.8 -0.1 45.2 45.8 -0.3 1.0 1.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 -0.8 0.0 -2.3 -0.6 35.8 39.2 -0.1 0.4 1.8 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 -0.7 0.3 0.6 -0.5 46.6 43.1 0.0 0.5 1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 -3.4 -3.1 -4.2 -1.5 25.5 31.0 -2.1 -1.1 0.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 -1.0 0.1 0.5 -0.6 41.6 41.0 -0.4 0.6 1.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 -6.4 -6.9 -6.3 -1.8 24.7 30.8 -5.0 -3.4 -2.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 -1.5 -0.6 -0.2 -0.8 35.4 37.7 -0.9 -0.1 1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 -1.5 -0.1 0.6 -0.4 43.9 43.2 -0.4 0.1 1.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 -1.3 -0.5 0.2 -0.5 40.0 41.0 -0.8 0.4 1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 -1.5 -0.9 -1.7 -1.0 30.4 34.6 -0.6 0.3 1.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 -0.8 -0.3 -1.0 -0.7 39.6 39.6 -0.6 0.2 1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 -1.6 -1.5 -2.6 -0.8 27.5 37.1 -1.4 -0.1 1.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 -0.7 -0.2 -0.2 -0.8 38.5 39.3 -0.4 0.5 0.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 -2.4 -1.5 -1.3 -0.2 42.0 43.6 -1.8 -1.3 0.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 77 23 0 100 -5.1 -4.7 -5.0 -1.6 24.9 31.2 -4.0 -2.6 -0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 -0.6 0.2 0.6 -0.7 40.7 40.3 -0.4 0.3 1.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------