***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.02.2015.-01.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 2.2 2.6 2.2 2.4 77.4 75.4 -3.1 0.3 1.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 0.5 1.0 1.9 2.2 70.3 71.5 -2.7 -1.1 0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 3.2 4.2 1.7 2.2 73.7 72.7 -0.7 0.4 2.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 -4.8 -2.1 -0.7 2.0 68.8 68.2 -6.8 -5.4 -3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 48 52 100 -0.3 0.2 -0.3 1.9 68.4 67.3 -3.8 -1.2 0.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 -0.5 -0.5 -1.5 2.9 76.1 75.4 -3.7 -1.2 -1.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 0.9 1.2 2.1 2.4 74.7 74.0 -2.9 -0.9 1.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 -4.9 -3.9 -1.2 2.9 72.0 71.9 -10.3 -7.4 -4.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 1.3 1.9 0.4 2.4 74.5 73.8 -3.2 -0.3 1.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 0.5 1.1 -0.8 2.9 70.9 71.4 -2.7 -1.0 0.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 0.7 1.0 -0.2 2.3 77.0 75.1 -2.6 -0.8 0.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 -0.4 0.0 -0.6 2.4 72.6 72.4 -3.7 -1.7 -0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 0.0 0.3 -0.9 2.3 70.9 70.5 -2.3 -0.6 0.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 92 8 100 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 2.0 58.8 62.4 -2.0 -0.5 1.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 0.9 1.8 0.9 2.6 77.6 75.8 -1.8 -0.4 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 1.4 1.9 -0.6 2.1 74.3 73.1 -1.7 -0.1 1.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 1.3 0.7 1.8 2.3 68.4 70.4 -2.6 -0.8 0.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 91 9 100 -3.0 -2.7 -2.0 2.5 56.6 62.0 -4.3 -3.3 -1.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 0.8 1.3 1.7 2.1 71.4 71.2 -2.8 -1.1 0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 94 6 100 -5.5 -4.5 -3.6 2.3 55.4 58.5 -8.5 -5.7 -2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 0.8 1.2 1.3 2.2 73.6 73.0 -3.2 -0.5 0.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 0.7 0.4 1.5 2.0 69.0 68.9 -2.9 -0.9 -0.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.9 73.0 71.2 -3.1 -1.1 0.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 90 10 100 -1.1 -0.2 -0.3 2.2 60.6 64.6 -2.7 -1.3 0.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.5 75.2 75.2 -3.0 -1.0 0.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 -0.5 0.3 -1.0 2.2 64.7 65.8 -2.1 -0.8 0.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 1.6 2.0 1.7 2.5 77.4 75.9 -3.1 -0.1 0.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 48 52 100 -1.3 -0.6 -0.1 2.0 69.4 69.6 -4.3 -2.6 -0.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 92 8 100 -4.2 -3.1 -2.6 2.4 56.8 61.8 -6.2 -4.6 -0.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.3 75.0 73.3 -2.8 -0.7 0.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------