***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2021.-21.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 14.2 12.1 31.6 60.9 22.2 25.4 18.0 26.5 36.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 12.1 10.6 26.7 56.9 21.7 24.0 15.3 28.6 34.9 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 19.6 15.1 32.4 63.0 23.3 26.9 24.1 36.9 54.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 27.3 25.5 41.4 68.1 31.3 31.2 26.1 36.2 54.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 25.4 25.1 40.6 70.7 27.4 31.5 28.3 36.2 49.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 24.6 21.6 40.8 71.2 27.9 30.6 23.6 34.7 42.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 77 23 0 100 11.3 9.0 26.7 58.4 21.9 25.1 19.2 26.3 35.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 47.7 52.6 44.2 71.8 29.9 32.0 53.9 65.1 71.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 22.0 20.9 41.3 71.6 29.8 32.0 22.4 32.3 40.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 27.5 29.4 44.8 72.8 30.0 32.2 32.3 37.5 41.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 24.0 22.3 39.6 70.4 28.3 31.3 23.3 32.4 40.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 23.4 22.9 38.5 69.0 28.5 30.3 27.4 34.3 43.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 26.3 27.1 41.5 70.6 27.5 30.0 28.8 36.5 48.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 25.4 25.3 42.4 64.6 22.0 26.3 37.2 46.7 64.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 14.6 16.0 38.3 66.4 32.8 32.2 16.2 27.9 52.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 23.3 25.3 39.5 69.9 28.0 30.5 28.1 32.0 39.7 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 13.0 11.5 25.8 57.4 22.3 24.8 19.1 26.0 35.7 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 25.0 23.7 46.0 71.7 28.8 31.1 25.1 35.2 43.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 15.4 12.9 28.0 57.5 21.7 24.1 21.1 31.3 40.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 26.8 23.7 54.7 71.5 29.0 31.8 26.3 38.2 41.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 20.8 16.5 37.4 68.2 26.5 30.1 20.2 32.1 48.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 13.2 12.3 27.3 56.9 21.1 24.0 19.6 26.6 37.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 77 23 0 100 14.5 13.4 31.0 59.5 21.2 25.0 19.8 27.8 38.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 24.8 25.3 41.2 68.5 26.4 29.2 34.0 42.3 62.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 15.6 12.7 37.8 63.2 21.8 26.3 21.5 30.3 48.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 21.4 22.3 40.4 69.2 27.9 29.6 22.9 31.5 41.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 15.0 14.3 33.5 60.9 20.5 25.1 18.1 28.3 36.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 16.2 15.6 39.8 69.0 32.8 32.5 15.6 24.9 40.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 43.2 42.4 48.0 70.5 26.7 30.2 45.3 60.9 69.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 80 20 0 100 14.3 11.9 27.9 57.9 22.2 24.4 17.0 33.8 40.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------