***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.03.2021.-21.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 1.4 3.2 10.9 85.2 48.6 42.3 1.1 3.4 5.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 0.9 2.4 9.8 85.6 51.6 43.6 1.2 2.1 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 1.9 4.7 11.2 89.5 53.1 43.5 2.8 4.7 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 4.1 11.4 16.0 110.0 63.4 49.6 4.0 6.9 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 3.7 11.2 15.6 110.0 62.3 49.7 4.1 7.9 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 2.5 9.5 14.9 105.6 62.8 51.4 1.8 5.6 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.4 3.7 9.6 86.0 53.4 45.7 1.2 3.3 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 8.7 20.9 15.7 109.7 62.8 50.6 7.4 15.5 22.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.8 9.1 15.2 105.2 60.6 49.3 4.0 7.6 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 5.0 15.1 15.9 105.9 61.0 50.4 6.2 10.8 17.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 3.3 12.0 14.6 110.2 63.8 50.5 2.5 7.2 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 2.8 13.2 13.9 109.6 63.5 50.0 4.2 5.5 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 2.6 11.5 15.3 108.8 61.5 50.9 3.6 6.4 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.3 10.5 14.0 86.4 53.6 43.2 4.1 9.0 11.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 0.5 2.7 14.4 103.2 63.8 49.3 0.5 1.2 3.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 2.6 7.4 14.9 109.8 61.5 50.2 3.6 5.7 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 1.1 3.2 9.5 86.5 56.7 45.1 0.2 2.5 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.5 11.8 15.8 99.8 59.4 48.6 3.0 8.7 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 1.4 2.8 10.1 85.3 50.0 42.5 1.0 2.8 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 4.2 12.3 18.9 103.1 60.1 48.8 3.6 8.9 13.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.8 8.5 13.5 99.6 58.3 47.0 3.7 7.4 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 0.7 1.9 9.9 84.8 53.5 43.1 0.6 1.5 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 1.2 2.4 10.6 84.2 49.3 42.1 1.4 2.4 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 5.6 13.1 13.9 94.5 58.0 46.0 4.5 11.1 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.3 5.5 13.8 94.0 52.8 45.2 1.2 4.8 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 2.4 9.3 14.8 108.9 61.7 50.5 2.6 6.3 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.1 4.4 11.7 87.3 49.5 43.5 1.6 4.4 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 0.9 8.2 15.3 109.4 65.2 50.2 0.6 2.2 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 7.9 18.1 16.2 96.8 57.1 47.2 4.5 16.3 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 1.2 3.1 10.0 84.5 50.0 42.9 1.3 3.1 6.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------