***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.03.2021.-14.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 5.4 5.3 12.8 97.0 55.7 48.5 1.0 4.8 6.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 0.6 2.1 10.9 92.1 54.2 45.4 0.7 1.5 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 6.0 6.0 12.8 97.8 57.5 49.2 1.3 4.5 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.2 10.8 15.6 108.6 63.2 52.1 4.6 8.1 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 6.5 8.4 15.0 104.8 58.9 50.6 0.7 4.9 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 6.6 6.3 16.2 110.9 64.4 51.4 1.6 4.3 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 0.9 2.6 11.2 96.1 56.1 46.6 0.8 2.2 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 7.5 16.7 17.0 114.1 63.8 52.9 6.6 13.9 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 5.6 5.0 15.4 102.7 58.3 50.6 0.7 3.4 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 2.5 6.4 16.7 107.2 60.6 51.4 0.8 5.0 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.9 7.9 14.6 108.9 61.8 51.2 1.1 5.9 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 6.6 7.8 14.9 114.7 64.1 53.0 0.3 4.8 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.4 7.9 16.1 112.8 63.5 52.9 1.8 5.8 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 1.6 6.5 16.8 97.8 54.6 47.8 2.6 3.5 10.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.5 6.4 15.4 112.5 66.8 52.9 2.2 4.3 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.9 9.9 15.1 111.5 63.7 52.4 1.4 7.7 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 0.9 2.8 10.5 92.0 55.0 45.3 0.9 2.2 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 1.7 5.8 17.4 104.2 58.9 51.0 1.4 3.8 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 1.8 4.6 11.4 92.1 53.2 45.8 1.1 4.3 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 1.6 5.8 21.8 109.7 61.3 52.2 1.1 3.6 7.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 4.9 3.1 14.1 100.9 56.5 49.9 1.1 2.6 4.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 0.6 1.3 11.1 91.5 53.9 44.3 0.5 1.0 3.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 0.8 1.9 12.5 93.3 52.1 46.9 0.4 1.9 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 2.0 7.4 15.8 101.4 58.3 50.2 1.2 4.4 8.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.1 5.6 14.5 96.5 54.3 48.0 0.4 4.4 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 4.4 4.8 16.4 118.3 65.4 54.1 0.7 2.3 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.6 6.2 13.2 94.5 54.4 46.9 1.2 5.6 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.2 7.1 15.5 114.5 66.8 53.2 1.6 4.1 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 3.5 9.5 18.5 103.5 58.1 50.1 3.6 8.1 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 1.1 3.9 11.5 93.5 55.1 46.5 0.7 2.5 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------