***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.03.2021.-07.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 2.3 4.5 7.3 62.2 41.3 36.4 3.6 6.1 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 3.5 6.0 5.5 51.5 35.5 32.5 5.3 9.4 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 3.8 6.1 7.7 65.3 42.1 37.6 5.1 10.5 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 11.4 8.5 8.8 65.9 46.4 40.3 5.4 8.7 15.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.9 6.4 8.7 67.1 41.3 38.2 5.4 9.2 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.3 4.4 8.6 61.2 38.8 36.6 3.2 5.2 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 3.1 3.2 5.3 50.9 36.7 32.5 2.6 7.4 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 21.0 14.8 9.9 70.9 42.7 39.2 12.8 17.8 27.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.3 5.0 9.6 76.2 44.5 42.1 4.3 6.7 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 6.3 11.7 10.3 76.7 44.4 41.6 8.4 12.6 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.0 5.1 8.9 68.0 41.9 38.7 3.0 5.8 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.6 5.4 8.5 63.5 39.4 36.4 3.1 6.9 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 3.6 5.0 8.4 60.6 37.0 35.8 3.9 7.2 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 6.1 14.3 10.4 70.9 42.7 38.9 10.0 15.6 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.0 5.1 7.9 61.9 48.6 40.2 1.1 6.0 14.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.3 4.0 8.4 62.7 39.4 37.5 1.5 7.3 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 2.6 5.0 5.3 50.8 38.5 32.2 2.9 6.4 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.1 10.0 11.0 78.7 44.7 42.2 7.3 10.3 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 3.5 5.1 6.1 55.6 37.6 33.6 4.0 7.6 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 5.0 7.1 11.9 69.3 42.4 37.4 4.3 9.4 12.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.9 6.1 8.8 72.6 43.7 40.8 3.0 7.4 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 3.7 6.4 5.7 52.8 39.4 32.2 5.1 8.9 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 3.6 6.3 7.4 62.8 40.5 36.1 3.7 7.6 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 5.6 10.8 10.1 74.7 43.1 41.0 9.1 11.8 19.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 3.5 3.5 8.4 60.4 37.9 34.7 2.3 9.6 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 2.3 3.1 8.3 55.8 36.0 33.0 2.4 6.1 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 1.8 2.5 7.7 60.0 37.4 34.8 2.4 5.4 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.2 2.8 8.2 63.0 45.8 39.7 2.1 4.3 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 8.2 14.8 11.4 75.7 43.6 40.4 12.1 15.8 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 3.0 4.8 5.9 54.0 36.7 33.4 4.2 7.1 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------