***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2021.-28.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.6 9.4 8.2 1.6 4.1 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 100 0 0 100 0.3 0.0 0.5 4.1 9.7 8.3 1.2 4.0 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 100 0 0 100 0.8 0.2 0.8 5.5 9.4 8.2 2.3 5.5 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 0.6 0.2 1.0 5.3 9.4 8.9 2.2 4.5 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 99 1 0 100 0.5 0.1 1.3 8.4 8.9 9.3 2.4 4.2 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 99 1 0 100 0.8 0.1 1.1 7.4 10.8 9.2 3.9 7.8 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 100 0 0 100 0.4 0.3 0.6 4.9 10.5 9.2 1.1 3.5 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 98 2 0 100 3.6 1.2 1.7 9.2 10.0 9.0 6.8 10.4 18.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 98 2 0 100 0.2 0.0 1.2 7.5 8.3 8.3 1.7 3.0 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 97 3 0 100 0.8 0.4 1.9 10.8 9.9 9.4 3.4 6.1 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 99 1 0 100 0.2 0.0 1.5 8.7 9.1 9.7 1.8 6.1 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 100 0 0 100 0.2 0.0 1.1 6.4 9.4 8.8 2.7 6.2 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 1.2 0.6 1.7 10.4 10.4 10.5 2.7 7.0 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 0.2 0.0 1.3 7.2 9.2 7.8 2.2 9.1 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 98 2 0 100 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.8 12.7 10.5 0.0 1.8 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 99 1 0 100 0.4 0.0 1.2 7.1 9.5 9.3 2.4 6.3 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 100 0 0 100 0.3 0.1 0.5 4.0 9.6 8.1 2.3 5.0 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 99 1 0 100 0.4 0.0 1.9 10.4 10.4 8.8 1.2 3.5 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 100 0 0 100 0.1 0.0 0.5 3.9 9.2 7.8 2.0 3.8 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 98 2 0 100 1.2 0.7 2.0 9.8 10.4 8.8 2.6 9.0 10.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 0.3 0.0 1.0 6.3 7.9 7.9 1.8 4.4 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 100 0 0 100 0.3 0.0 0.4 3.3 8.7 7.2 1.7 4.8 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 100 0 0 100 0.4 0.1 0.6 3.9 8.4 7.2 1.9 3.8 7.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 100 0 0 100 0.7 0.3 1.4 8.3 9.5 8.4 1.8 4.9 8.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 0.2 0.0 1.1 6.6 8.4 8.5 2.5 4.5 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 0.2 0.1 0.9 5.6 9.1 8.5 3.1 8.5 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 100 0 0 100 0.5 0.0 0.8 5.4 9.1 8.5 1.7 5.6 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 99 1 0 100 0.0 0.0 0.8 4.8 10.9 9.6 0.9 4.6 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 98 2 0 100 1.7 0.9 1.9 10.3 10.7 8.9 3.4 11.1 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 100 0 0 100 0.1 0.0 0.6 4.7 10.1 8.6 1.4 4.2 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------