***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2021.-21.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 12.3 13.0 11.3 2.2 73.9 71.8 8.8 10.1 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 12.0 13.0 11.2 2.1 75.8 71.9 7.7 9.9 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 12.7 13.5 11.7 2.2 74.9 71.3 8.6 10.7 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 5.2 6.3 8.9 2.4 74.2 72.9 1.2 2.5 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 13.0 13.3 10.1 2.3 74.0 72.5 8.6 10.7 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 12.0 12.5 8.3 2.1 74.7 71.3 7.9 9.4 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 11.8 12.5 11.1 2.1 75.2 71.9 7.3 9.7 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 2.1 2.1 9.1 2.5 75.4 74.3 -0.9 0.2 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 13.1 13.7 10.8 2.3 74.6 72.4 8.7 11.0 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 13.2 13.5 9.8 2.4 74.3 72.9 8.6 10.9 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 13.1 13.5 10.2 2.2 73.0 71.2 9.2 10.7 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 12.5 12.5 9.7 2.3 73.9 73.2 8.3 10.3 11.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 13.5 12.5 9.3 2.1 71.8 71.0 9.2 10.9 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 13.5 14.1 11.2 2.6 77.1 73.9 9.2 11.5 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 11.6 12.9 9.8 2.1 70.9 69.3 7.7 9.3 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 13.7 13.3 9.6 2.2 72.7 71.2 9.4 11.1 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 11.4 12.1 11.0 2.2 77.2 73.7 7.2 9.8 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 13.0 13.9 9.7 2.8 78.9 76.0 8.3 10.7 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 12.3 13.0 11.5 2.2 76.4 72.1 7.3 10.3 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 8.2 9.4 7.6 3.0 82.7 79.3 3.8 5.7 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 12.8 13.6 11.4 2.2 74.5 72.0 8.8 11.1 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 12.5 13.4 11.4 2.3 78.0 74.4 7.7 10.4 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 12.9 13.7 11.8 2.3 76.8 72.4 8.4 10.9 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 12.8 13.5 11.0 2.5 77.3 73.5 9.1 11.0 12.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 12.0 13.0 10.0 2.3 74.5 72.6 7.9 9.8 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 12.6 12.5 8.7 2.1 73.7 73.1 8.7 10.2 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 12.4 12.8 10.7 2.2 74.3 72.5 8.4 10.3 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 12.3 13.8 9.3 2.2 72.3 70.7 8.5 9.5 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 8.2 9.8 9.1 3.0 82.0 78.2 4.1 5.5 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 11.8 12.5 11.2 2.1 75.0 71.4 7.9 9.7 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------