***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.03.2021.-21.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 12.7 14.8 12.5 1.5 66.7 61.0 8.9 11.9 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 11.8 14.6 12.4 1.5 65.1 60.6 9.6 10.8 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 13.6 14.5 12.9 1.4 63.3 59.9 9.3 12.8 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 6.0 6.7 10.2 1.6 64.3 60.5 0.9 4.9 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 13.7 14.4 11.1 1.4 62.7 59.5 9.0 12.9 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 12.8 14.0 9.0 1.1 61.3 57.7 8.0 12.0 14.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 12.0 14.2 12.3 1.5 65.6 61.0 9.1 11.1 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 1.8 3.0 9.5 1.1 60.2 57.2 -1.0 0.9 3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 13.6 13.5 11.6 1.4 61.8 59.3 8.6 12.9 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 14.1 13.7 10.4 1.3 60.4 58.2 8.3 13.4 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 13.9 13.8 10.9 1.2 60.7 58.2 8.9 13.2 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 12.8 13.9 10.4 1.1 60.0 56.9 7.9 12.0 15.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 13.8 14.2 9.6 1.1 60.1 57.6 9.3 13.1 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 13.8 14.2 11.8 1.5 62.1 59.8 9.8 13.1 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 12.9 15.0 10.9 1.5 63.8 60.3 9.9 11.7 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 14.3 15.0 10.3 1.2 60.3 58.0 9.3 13.6 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 11.1 13.9 12.2 1.5 66.7 61.6 8.7 10.2 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 13.5 13.3 10.2 1.4 60.9 58.9 8.5 12.6 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 12.3 14.7 12.6 1.4 64.3 60.4 9.3 11.5 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 7.9 9.4 7.4 1.2 61.2 58.3 3.9 7.0 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 13.4 14.7 12.3 1.5 64.1 60.0 9.2 12.6 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 11.9 15.3 12.4 1.5 66.0 61.2 9.5 10.9 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 12.9 15.1 12.9 1.5 63.3 60.2 9.9 12.1 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 13.6 14.0 11.6 1.5 61.7 59.4 9.6 12.7 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 12.8 15.3 11.0 1.6 65.8 61.3 9.0 11.9 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 13.2 13.9 9.3 1.0 59.2 57.3 8.6 12.6 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 12.8 14.5 11.8 1.5 66.6 61.2 9.1 12.1 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 13.4 15.6 10.4 1.5 63.3 59.7 9.6 12.3 16.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 8.1 8.4 9.3 1.4 60.5 59.1 3.5 7.2 11.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 12.1 14.7 12.4 1.4 64.6 60.4 9.4 11.2 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------