***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.03.2021.-14.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 11.2 10.6 10.4 1.0 53.4 55.0 8.0 10.5 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 11.3 10.7 10.3 1.0 53.5 55.3 8.3 10.6 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 11.9 11.6 10.7 0.9 52.0 54.4 8.2 11.2 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 3.2 2.5 8.0 0.9 55.0 55.0 0.0 2.2 4.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 12.0 11.4 8.9 0.9 53.4 54.8 8.2 11.2 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 9.8 9.8 7.2 1.0 55.4 56.0 6.5 9.2 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 11.1 10.8 10.3 1.1 53.8 55.7 8.3 10.4 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 1.2 1.3 7.8 1.0 55.8 56.2 -2.0 0.5 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 11.6 11.3 9.4 0.9 52.0 54.5 8.1 10.8 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.4 8.5 1.0 54.4 55.6 8.5 11.0 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 11.7 11.4 8.9 0.9 54.2 55.3 8.2 10.9 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.8 10.9 8.6 0.9 55.1 55.7 7.9 10.0 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 11.4 11.6 7.8 1.0 56.3 56.7 9.2 10.7 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.6 12.5 9.8 1.1 55.5 55.9 8.8 11.8 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 11.2 10.7 8.5 0.7 51.6 53.7 7.6 10.3 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 12.0 11.8 8.4 1.0 56.0 55.8 8.5 11.4 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 11.2 10.6 10.3 1.1 54.6 56.1 7.3 10.4 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.8 8.4 1.3 58.0 57.4 8.6 10.4 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 11.3 11.1 10.6 1.0 53.2 54.9 7.8 10.6 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.7 8.5 6.0 1.4 62.8 59.1 3.7 6.0 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 11.8 11.5 10.1 0.9 53.2 54.3 8.6 11.0 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 12.0 11.7 10.4 1.1 54.3 55.7 8.1 11.3 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 12.3 12.2 10.8 0.9 53.5 54.6 8.7 11.6 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 12.1 12.1 9.6 1.1 54.7 55.8 8.6 11.3 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 11.0 10.4 8.8 1.0 55.4 55.5 7.3 10.3 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 11.4 11.0 7.5 0.9 54.9 56.1 8.7 10.9 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 11.2 11.0 9.7 1.0 55.7 55.6 8.3 10.5 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 11.7 11.1 8.2 0.8 53.5 54.3 7.6 10.8 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 6.5 6.9 7.6 1.4 61.0 58.5 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 11.2 10.7 10.3 1.0 52.6 55.0 7.7 10.5 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------