***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.03.2021.-07.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 11.8 12.5 10.1 1.4 59.8 58.3 6.8 11.3 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 9.8 11.3 10.1 1.3 58.1 57.9 7.3 8.9 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 11.3 12.0 10.4 1.3 58.1 57.6 8.1 10.6 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 4.3 5.4 7.5 1.6 63.5 60.3 0.1 3.3 5.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 11.8 11.8 8.8 1.5 60.6 59.1 8.7 11.0 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 10.6 10.9 7.1 1.4 60.8 59.3 7.4 9.6 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 9.2 11.0 9.9 1.3 57.6 57.5 7.4 8.4 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 1.4 2.7 7.7 1.6 62.4 61.5 -1.0 0.8 2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 12.0 11.7 9.7 1.4 60.2 59.0 8.8 11.4 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 12.1 11.9 8.5 1.6 60.7 60.1 8.6 11.3 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 12.2 12.0 9.1 1.4 59.0 59.0 8.6 11.4 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.9 10.9 8.4 1.5 60.9 60.4 8.4 10.1 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 11.4 12.4 8.4 1.4 60.5 59.7 8.8 10.5 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 12.4 13.3 9.9 1.6 61.7 59.3 8.9 11.8 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 9.8 10.7 8.9 1.4 60.3 58.8 6.3 8.6 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 12.0 12.8 8.5 1.4 60.1 59.3 9.0 11.1 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 9.0 11.4 9.8 1.3 59.1 58.4 6.7 8.3 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 11.3 12.8 8.2 1.8 64.2 61.8 8.7 10.5 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 10.1 12.1 10.3 1.4 58.7 58.1 7.3 9.2 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 8.4 8.3 6.3 2.1 68.4 65.1 4.6 5.7 8.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 11.9 11.6 10.2 1.4 59.1 58.1 8.5 11.2 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 10.5 12.0 10.1 1.5 59.6 59.2 7.0 9.6 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 11.2 12.4 10.5 1.4 59.5 58.2 8.5 10.5 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 12.2 13.3 9.7 1.5 61.7 59.3 8.9 11.6 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 10.6 10.7 8.9 1.4 60.8 58.9 7.6 9.9 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 11.2 12.4 7.5 1.4 62.4 60.7 8.4 10.4 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 11.0 11.9 9.5 1.4 59.9 58.5 7.9 10.4 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 10.9 11.5 8.1 1.5 61.9 59.5 7.1 9.5 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 8.6 9.2 7.7 2.0 66.2 63.7 4.6 6.1 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 9.8 11.2 10.1 1.3 57.8 57.6 7.4 9.0 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------