***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2021.-28.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 13.1 15.0 12.1 4.8 86.7 84.9 5.4 7.7 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 8 92 100 11.4 14.7 12.1 4.7 86.6 85.2 4.6 6.1 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 8 92 100 13.4 15.7 12.8 5.1 86.3 84.7 5.3 6.8 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 6.7 9.2 9.8 5.6 90.6 85.9 -0.8 0.1 2.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 13.6 16.1 11.7 5.5 90.6 86.9 5.5 7.2 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 7 93 100 11.7 15.0 9.9 5.0 89.7 86.9 4.8 6.9 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 10.7 14.2 11.8 4.5 86.1 85.0 4.6 5.6 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 2.0 5.8 11.2 6.2 93.6 91.3 -2.6 -1.1 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 8 92 100 13.4 16.6 12.7 5.4 90.1 87.0 6.1 7.4 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 7 93 100 13.0 16.5 11.7 5.8 91.7 88.9 5.5 7.7 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 9 91 100 13.2 16.5 12.0 5.2 88.2 85.3 5.7 8.0 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 12.1 15.4 11.5 5.8 92.0 89.8 5.2 7.5 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 6 94 100 13.2 15.7 11.3 4.8 89.1 85.9 6.0 7.8 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 4 96 100 15.3 16.8 13.3 6.0 89.4 88.0 5.7 7.6 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 12.1 14.2 11.0 4.6 86.0 81.8 4.5 6.6 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 13.6 16.6 11.2 5.1 89.3 85.9 6.5 8.5 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 7 93 100 10.3 13.9 11.9 4.9 88.7 87.0 4.8 5.8 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 5 95 100 12.6 17.1 11.9 6.6 94.8 92.2 5.5 7.4 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 12.1 15.1 12.5 4.9 87.1 85.6 4.8 5.8 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 2 98 100 7.9 12.2 10.6 7.1 97.0 95.8 1.6 2.9 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 13.7 16.2 13.1 5.2 89.4 86.2 5.7 7.4 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 6 94 100 11.7 15.6 12.5 5.2 89.8 88.1 4.9 5.8 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 6 94 100 12.8 15.8 12.9 5.3 87.6 86.1 5.6 6.2 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 5 95 100 13.8 16.5 13.1 5.9 90.4 88.3 5.8 7.8 11.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 12.0 14.8 11.4 5.1 90.2 86.2 5.2 6.3 8.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 6 94 100 11.4 16.1 10.3 5.2 94.3 91.3 6.4 7.6 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 12.5 15.2 11.8 4.8 89.4 86.4 5.4 7.0 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 13.2 16.2 10.5 5.1 87.8 83.8 5.2 6.4 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 3 97 100 8.7 13.2 11.8 7.2 96.3 94.6 2.0 4.5 7.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 11.3 14.2 12.1 4.7 85.7 84.7 4.6 5.6 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------