***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.03.2021.-21.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 1.5 1.5 3.7 1.5 61.8 61.3 0.2 1.0 2.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 1.4 1.7 3.4 1.4 62.3 61.1 0.1 0.9 2.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 4.0 5.1 3.7 1.4 61.3 61.4 1.8 3.7 5.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 -1.9 -1.0 0.9 1.5 59.5 61.4 -4.8 -2.4 0.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 0.5 0.4 1.2 1.4 57.2 60.1 -0.9 0.1 1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 -0.1 -0.1 -1.0 1.5 57.6 61.7 -0.9 -0.4 0.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 1.8 2.5 3.6 1.4 63.8 61.3 0.3 1.4 2.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 -5.0 -4.5 -0.9 1.2 55.2 59.1 -7.7 -5.6 -3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 1.9 2.0 1.6 1.4 57.5 60.5 0.6 1.5 2.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 1.5 1.4 0.0 1.3 55.7 59.7 0.2 1.2 2.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 1.1 1.3 0.6 1.3 54.7 59.1 -0.3 0.7 2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 1.3 54.7 58.9 -1.0 -0.5 0.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 1.3 1.2 -0.5 1.4 56.7 60.1 0.2 1.0 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 2.1 2.5 1.6 1.4 61.6 60.6 1.1 1.8 2.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 2.2 2.5 1.9 1.4 62.2 61.5 0.8 1.8 2.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 1.9 1.6 0.0 1.3 55.6 59.8 0.7 1.5 2.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 1.9 2.5 3.5 1.5 63.8 61.9 0.8 1.5 2.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 1.2 56.6 59.4 -1.1 -0.6 0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 1.6 2.4 3.4 1.3 62.2 61.1 0.1 1.1 2.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 -2.9 -2.8 -2.4 1.1 56.2 58.8 -4.0 -3.3 -1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 1.5 1.6 2.9 1.4 59.7 60.7 0.5 1.1 2.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 1.2 1.9 3.2 1.3 62.3 61.5 0.1 0.8 2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 1.2 1.4 3.2 1.3 62.5 61.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.3 60.2 60.6 0.4 1.2 1.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 1.3 1.6 2.4 1.6 62.4 61.4 0.0 1.0 1.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 1.0 1.0 -0.7 1.3 54.7 59.4 0.2 0.8 1.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 1.9 2.4 3.3 1.5 62.9 61.2 -0.4 1.4 2.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 0.1 0.7 1.0 1.4 60.5 61.3 -0.8 -0.4 1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 -0.8 -0.5 -1.2 1.2 57.6 59.7 -3.3 -1.3 0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 2.1 2.3 3.5 1.4 62.1 61.0 0.5 1.7 2.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------