***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.03.2021.-14.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 1.2 1.2 1.8 0.8 54.3 54.8 -0.2 0.8 1.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 0.9 0.5 1.5 0.6 52.8 53.2 -0.6 0.4 1.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 3.0 2.6 1.8 0.7 53.1 54.3 1.1 2.3 3.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 -3.2 -3.7 -0.8 0.9 53.5 56.4 -5.4 -3.8 -2.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 0.0 -0.6 -0.6 0.8 50.2 55.0 -1.5 -0.6 0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 -0.7 -0.6 -2.4 1.2 54.3 58.4 -2.6 -1.0 -0.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 0.8 0.5 1.6 0.6 53.3 53.3 -0.6 0.4 1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -6.1 -6.8 -2.4 0.9 52.7 56.3 -8.6 -7.0 -4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 1.3 0.7 -0.2 0.7 49.9 54.6 -0.4 0.7 1.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 1.5 1.1 -1.7 0.8 51.8 55.4 -0.4 1.1 1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 1.1 0.7 -1.1 0.8 50.8 55.2 -1.1 0.7 1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 -0.2 -0.6 -1.6 0.9 53.3 56.8 -2.0 -0.7 -0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 0.6 0.5 -1.9 1.1 54.7 57.9 -0.9 0.3 0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 1.7 1.3 -0.4 0.7 51.2 54.4 -0.3 1.3 2.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 -0.3 1.6 0.2 0.8 53.9 55.8 -0.4 1.4 2.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 1.4 1.2 -1.5 0.9 53.5 56.7 -0.1 1.0 1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 1.4 0.9 1.5 0.6 53.2 52.8 -0.4 0.8 1.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 -0.4 -0.7 -2.3 0.8 51.7 55.8 -2.2 -0.7 0.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 0.8 0.6 1.5 0.6 52.9 53.4 -0.4 0.3 1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -3.5 -3.7 -3.8 0.8 52.7 56.0 -5.4 -4.1 -2.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 0.7 0.2 1.0 0.7 51.4 54.4 -0.6 0.2 1.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 0.7 0.3 1.3 0.5 53.4 53.1 -0.7 0.1 1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 0.6 0.3 1.4 0.6 52.6 53.6 -0.6 0.1 1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 0.7 0.1 -0.6 0.7 50.1 54.8 -0.6 0.1 1.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 0.7 0.4 0.6 1.0 55.9 55.7 -0.8 0.2 1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 0.4 0.3 -1.8 1.2 56.9 59.3 -1.1 0.0 1.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 0.8 0.6 1.4 0.9 54.5 54.8 -0.7 0.3 1.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 -0.2 -0.3 -0.7 0.8 53.1 56.1 -1.9 -0.6 0.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 -2.1 -2.5 -2.7 0.9 52.5 56.6 -4.0 -2.8 -0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 1.0 0.4 1.6 0.6 53.3 53.6 -0.2 0.4 1.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------